Optimal Expectations and Limited Medical Testing: Evidence from Huntington Disease

We use novel data to study genetic testing among individuals at risk for Huntington disease (HD), a hereditary disease with limited life expectancy. Although genetic testing is perfectly predictive and carries little economic cost, presymptomatic testing is rare. Testing rates increase with increase...

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Published inThe American economic review Vol. 103; no. 2; pp. 804 - 830
Main Authors Oster, Emily, Shoulson, Ira, Dorsey, E. Ray
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Nashville American Economic Association 01.04.2013
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Abstract We use novel data to study genetic testing among individuals at risk for Huntington disease (HD), a hereditary disease with limited life expectancy. Although genetic testing is perfectly predictive and carries little economic cost, presymptomatic testing is rare. Testing rates increase with increases in ex ante risk of having HD. Untested individuals express optimistic beliefs about their health and make decisions (e.g., retirement) as if they do not have HD, even though individuals with confirmed HD behave differently. We suggest that these facts can be reconciled by an optimal expectations model (Brunnermeier and Parker 2005).
AbstractList We use novel data to study genetic testing among individuals at risk for Huntington disease (HD), a hereditary disease with limited life expectancy. Although genetic testing is perfectly predictive and carries little economic cost, presymptomatic testing is rare. Testing rates increase with increases in ex ante risk of having HD. Untested individuals express optimistic beliefs about their health and make decisions (e.g., retirement) as if they do not have HD, even though individuals with confirmed HD behave differently. We suggest that these facts can be reconciled by an optimal expectations model (Brunnermeier and Parker 2005). (JEL D84, I12)
We use novel data to study genetic testing among individuals at risk for Huntington disease (HD), a hereditary disease with limited life expectancy. Although genetic testing is perfectly predictive and carries little economic cost, presymptomatic testing is rare. Testing rates increase with increases in ex ante risk of having HD. Untested individuals express optimistic beliefs about their health and make decisions (e.g., retirement) as if they do not have HD, even though individuals with confirmed HD behave differently. We suggest that these facts can be reconciled by an optimal expectations model (Brunnermeier and Parker 2005). (JEL D84, I12) [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
We use novel data to study genetic testing among individuals at risk for Huntington disease (HD), a hereditary disease with limited life expectancy. Although genetic testing is perfectly predictive and carries little economic cost, presymptomatic testing is rare. Testing rates increase with increases in ex ante risk of having HD. Untested individuals express optimistic beliefs about their health and make decisions (e.g., retirement) as if they do not have HD, even though individuals with confirmed HD behave differently. We suggest that these facts can be reconciled by an optimal expectations model (Brunnermeier and Parker 2005).
Author Oster, Emily
Shoulson, Ira
Dorsey, E. Ray
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  givenname: E. Ray
  surname: Dorsey
  fullname: Dorsey, E. Ray
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Snippet We use novel data to study genetic testing among individuals at risk for Huntington disease (HD), a hereditary disease with limited life expectancy. Although...
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SubjectTerms Age
Behavior
Decision making
Disease models
Diseases
Economic models
Funding
Genetic disorders
Genetic engineering
Genetic mutation
Genetic testing
Health care
Health economics
Health risk assessment
Human genetics
Huntington disease
Huntingtons disease
Life expectancy
Medical genetics
Medical screening
Medical treatment
Pregnancy
Probability
Retirement
Studies
Symptoms
Utilities costs
Title Optimal Expectations and Limited Medical Testing: Evidence from Huntington Disease
URI https://www.jstor.org/stable/23469683
https://www.proquest.com/docview/1323979602
https://www.proquest.com/docview/1335018537
Volume 103
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