Optimal Expectations and Limited Medical Testing: Evidence from Huntington Disease
We use novel data to study genetic testing among individuals at risk for Huntington disease (HD), a hereditary disease with limited life expectancy. Although genetic testing is perfectly predictive and carries little economic cost, presymptomatic testing is rare. Testing rates increase with increase...
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Published in | The American economic review Vol. 103; no. 2; pp. 804 - 830 |
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Main Authors | , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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American Economic Association
01.04.2013
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Abstract | We use novel data to study genetic testing among individuals at risk for Huntington disease (HD), a hereditary disease with limited life expectancy. Although genetic testing is perfectly predictive and carries little economic cost, presymptomatic testing is rare. Testing rates increase with increases in ex ante risk of having HD. Untested individuals express optimistic beliefs about their health and make decisions (e.g., retirement) as if they do not have HD, even though individuals with confirmed HD behave differently. We suggest that these facts can be reconciled by an optimal expectations model (Brunnermeier and Parker 2005). |
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AbstractList | We use novel data to study genetic testing among individuals at risk for Huntington disease (HD), a hereditary disease with limited life expectancy. Although genetic testing is perfectly predictive and carries little economic cost, presymptomatic testing is rare. Testing rates increase with increases in ex ante risk of having HD. Untested individuals express optimistic beliefs about their health and make decisions (e.g., retirement) as if they do not have HD, even though individuals with confirmed HD behave differently. We suggest that these facts can be reconciled by an optimal expectations model (Brunnermeier and Parker 2005). (JEL D84, I12) We use novel data to study genetic testing among individuals at risk for Huntington disease (HD), a hereditary disease with limited life expectancy. Although genetic testing is perfectly predictive and carries little economic cost, presymptomatic testing is rare. Testing rates increase with increases in ex ante risk of having HD. Untested individuals express optimistic beliefs about their health and make decisions (e.g., retirement) as if they do not have HD, even though individuals with confirmed HD behave differently. We suggest that these facts can be reconciled by an optimal expectations model (Brunnermeier and Parker 2005). (JEL D84, I12) [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] We use novel data to study genetic testing among individuals at risk for Huntington disease (HD), a hereditary disease with limited life expectancy. Although genetic testing is perfectly predictive and carries little economic cost, presymptomatic testing is rare. Testing rates increase with increases in ex ante risk of having HD. Untested individuals express optimistic beliefs about their health and make decisions (e.g., retirement) as if they do not have HD, even though individuals with confirmed HD behave differently. We suggest that these facts can be reconciled by an optimal expectations model (Brunnermeier and Parker 2005). |
Author | Oster, Emily Shoulson, Ira Dorsey, E. Ray |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Emily surname: Oster fullname: Oster, Emily – sequence: 2 givenname: Ira surname: Shoulson fullname: Shoulson, Ira – sequence: 3 givenname: E. Ray surname: Dorsey fullname: Dorsey, E. Ray |
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SubjectTerms | Age Behavior Decision making Disease models Diseases Economic models Funding Genetic disorders Genetic engineering Genetic mutation Genetic testing Health care Health economics Health risk assessment Human genetics Huntington disease Huntingtons disease Life expectancy Medical genetics Medical screening Medical treatment Pregnancy Probability Retirement Studies Symptoms Utilities costs |
Title | Optimal Expectations and Limited Medical Testing: Evidence from Huntington Disease |
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