Long-term temperature and sea-level rise stabilization before and beyond 2100: Estimating the additional climate mitigation contribution from China’s recent 2060 carbon neutrality pledge

• Published in: Environmental research letters Vol. 16; no. 7; pp. 74032 - 74043
• Main Authors: Chen, Jiewei, Cui, Huijuan, Xu, Yangyang, Ge, Quansheng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bristol IOP Publishing 01.07.2021
• Subjects: Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Carbon dioxide emissions; Carbon neutrality; Carbon offsets; Carbon sequestration; Climate change; Climate change mitigation; Climate effects; Emissions; Emissions control; Emitters; Global temperatures; Global warming; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; Mathematical models; Nitrous oxide; Paris Agreement; Sea level; Sea level rise; Statistical models; temperature rise; China
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0cac
• ISSN: 1748-9326

As the largest emitter in the world, China recently pledged to reach a carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, which could accelerate the progress of mitigating negative climate change effects. In this study, we used the Minimum Complexity Earth Simulator and a semi-empirical statistical model to quantify the global mean temperature and sea-level rise (SLR) response under a suite of emission pathways that are constructed to cover various carbon peak and carbon neutrality years in China. The results show that China will require a carbon emission reduction rate of no less than 6%/year and a growth rate of more than 10%/year for carbon capture capacity to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Carbon peak years and peak emissions contribute significantly to mitigating climate change in the near term, while carbon neutrality years are more influential in the long term. Mitigation due to recent China’s pledge alone will contribute a 0.16 °C–0.21 °C avoided warming at 2100 and also lessen the cumulative warming above 1.5 °C level. When accompanied by coordinated international efforts to reach global carbon neutrality before 2070, the 2 °C target can be achieved. However, the 1.5 °C target requires additional efforts, such as global scale adoption of negative emission technology for CO 2 , as well as a deep cut in non-CO 2 GHG emissions. Collectively, the efforts of adopting negative emission technolgy and curbing all greenhouse gas emissions will reduce global warming by 0.9 °C −1.2 °C at 2100, and also reduce SLR by 49–59 cm in 2200, compared to a baseline mitigation pathway already aiming at 2 °C. Our findings suggest that while China’s ambitious carbon-neutral pledge contributes to Paris Agreement’s targets, additional major efforts will be needed, such as reaching an earlier and lower CO 2 emission peak, developing negative emission technology for CO 2 , and cutting other non-CO 2 GHGs such as N 2 O, CH 4 , O 3 , and HFCs.