Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty

• Published in: Climatic change Vol. 112; no. 3-4; pp. 569 - 583
• Main Authors: Webster, Mort, Sokolov, Andrei P., Reilly, John M., Forest, Chris E., Paltsev, Sergey, Schlosser, Adam, Wang, Chien, Kicklighter, David, Sarofim, Marcus, Melillo, Jerry, Prinn, Ronald G., Jacoby, Henry D.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.06.2012; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences; Climate; Climate change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climate policy; Climate science; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Computer simulation; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; economic systems; Emission analysis; Emissions; Emissions control; Environmental policy; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; General circulation models; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; Meteorology; Monte Carlo methods; Monte Carlo simulation; policy analysis; Reduction; Risk assessment; Risk management; Science programs; temperature; Uncertainty; United States; United States; Climate Policy; Stabilization Scenario; Emission Path; Supplemental Online Material; Emission Constraint; sustainable development; Mitigation; stabilization; Monte Carlo analysis; climate warming; Climate policy; Emissions reduction; uncertainties; climate change; greenhouse gas

Although policymaking in response to the climate change threat is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo sim...