Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices
We develop a general equilibrium model in which stock prices of innovative firms exhibit "bubbles" during technological revolutions. In the model, the average productivity of a new technology is uncertain and subject to learning. During technological revolutions, the nature of this uncerta...
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| Published in | The American economic review Vol. 99; no. 4; pp. 1451 - 1483 |
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| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Nashville
American Economic Association
01.09.2009
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | We develop a general equilibrium model in which stock prices of innovative firms exhibit "bubbles" during technological revolutions. In the model, the average productivity of a new technology is uncertain and subject to learning. During technological revolutions, the nature of this uncertainty changes from idiosyncratic to systematic. The resulting bubbles in stock prices are observable ex post but unpredictable ex ante, and they are most pronounced for technologies characterized by high uncertainty and fast adoption. We find empirical support for the model's predictions in 1830-1861 and 1992-2005 when the railroad and Internet technologies spread in the United States. |
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| AbstractList | We develop a general equilibrium model in which stock prices of innovative firms exhibit "bubbles" during technological revolutions. In the model, the average productivity of a new technology is uncertain and subject to learning. During technological revolutions, the nature of this uncertainty changes from idiosyncratic to systematic. The resulting bubbles in stock prices are observable ex post but unpredictable ex ante, and they are most pronounced for technologies characterized by high uncertainty and fast adoption. We find empirical support for the model's predictions in 1830-1861 and 1992-2005 when the railroad and Internet technologies spread in the United States. (JEL G12, L86, L92, N21, N22, N71, N72) [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] We develop a general equilibrium model in which stock prices of innovative firms exhibit "bubbles" during technological revolutions. In the model, the average productivity of a new technology is uncertain and subject to learning. During technological revolutions, the nature of this uncertainty changes from idiosyncratic to systematic. The resulting bubbles in stock prices are observable ex post but unpredictable ex ante, and they are most pronounced for technologies characterized by high uncertainty and fast adoption. We find empirical support for the model's predictions in 1830-1861 and 1992-2005 when the railroad and Internet technologies spread in the United States. We develop a general equilibrium model in which stock prices of innovative firms exhibit “bubbles” during technological revolutions. In the model, the average productivity of a new technology is uncertain and subject to learning. During technological revolutions, the nature of this uncertainty changes from idiosyncratic to systematic. The resulting bubbles in stock prices are observable ex post but unpredictable ex ante, and they are most pronounced for technologies characterized by high uncertainty and fast adoption. We find empirical support for the model's predictions in 1830–1861 and 1992–2005 when the railroad and Internet technologies spread in the United States. (JEL G12, L86, L92, N21, N22, N71, N72) |
| Author | Veronesi, Pietro Pástor, Ľuboš |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Ľuboš surname: Pástor fullname: Pástor, Ľuboš – sequence: 2 givenname: Pietro surname: Veronesi fullname: Veronesi, Pietro |
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| Copyright | Copyright 2009 The American Economic Association Copyright American Economic Association Sep 2009 |
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| Snippet | We develop a general equilibrium model in which stock prices of innovative firms exhibit "bubbles" during technological revolutions. In the model, the average... We develop a general equilibrium model in which stock prices of innovative firms exhibit “bubbles” during technological revolutions. In the model, the average... |
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| SubjectTerms | Applied economics Biotechnology Discount rates Economic bubbles Economic impact analysis Economic modeling Economic models Economic uncertainty Emerging technology Equilibrium General economic equilibrium Innovation diffusion Internet New technology Prices Productivity Stock exchanges Stock prices Studies Technological change Technological revolutions Technology Uncertainty Volatility |
| Title | Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices |
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