Predictions of global and regional sea-level rise using AOGCMs with and without flux adjustment

• Published in: Geophysical research letters Vol. 27; no. 19; pp. 3069 - 3072
• Main Authors: Gregory, J. M., Lowe, J. A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington, DC Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.10.2000; American Geophysical Union
• Subjects: Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Marine; Physics of the oceans; Surface waves, tides and sea level. Seiches; Thermal expansion; Flux adjustment; Glacier; General circulation models; Ice cap; Numerical simulation; Forcing; Sea level; Greenhouse gases; Forecasting; Ocean atmosphere interaction
• DOI: 10.1029/1999GL011228
• ISSN: 0094-8276

Future global and regional sea‐level changes have been calculated using two versions (HadCM2 and HadCM3) of the Hadley Centre coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model forced by the IS92a scenario for emissions of greenhouse gases. HadCM3 is a newly developed model which does not require flux adjustment to maintain a stable climatology. Global‐average sea‐level rise from 1990 to 2100 is predicted to be 0.48 m in HadCM2 and 0.44 m in HadCMS, 60% resulting from thermal expansion of sea‐water and the rest from loss of mass of glaciers and small ice‐caps. Sea‐level rise is smaller in HadCM3 principally because the radiative forcing is slightly less, giving reduced ocean heat uptake and thermal expansion. However, the heat penetrates less deeply in HadCMS; consequently the surface warming is nearly the same. There is marked geographical variation of sea‐level change, which is generally similar in the two models; local values range between zero and twice the global average.