Toward Improving High-Resolution Numerical Hurricane Forecasting: Influence of Model Horizontal Grid Resolution, Initialization, and Physics
Abstract This paper provides an account of the performance of an experimental version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting system (HWRFX) for 87 cases of Atlantic tropical cyclones during the 2005, 2007, and 2009 hurricane seasons. The HWRFX system was used to study the influence of mod...
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Published in | Weather and forecasting Vol. 27; no. 3; pp. 647 - 666 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Boston, MA
American Meteorological Society
01.06.2012
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Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Abstract | Abstract
This paper provides an account of the performance of an experimental version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting system (HWRFX) for 87 cases of Atlantic tropical cyclones during the 2005, 2007, and 2009 hurricane seasons. The HWRFX system was used to study the influence of model grid resolution, initial conditions, and physics. For each case, the model was run to produce 126 h of forecast with two versions of horizontal resolution, namely, (i) a parent domain at a resolution of about 27 km with a 9-km moving nest (27:9) and (ii) a parent domain at a resolution of 9 km with a 3-km moving nest (9:3). The former was selected to be consistent with the current operational resolution, while the latter is the first step in testing the impact of finer resolutions for future versions of the operational model. The two configurations were run with initial conditions for tropical cyclones obtained from the operational Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and HWRF models. Sensitivity experiments were also conducted with the physical parameterization scheme. The study shows that the 9:3 HWRFX system using the GFDL initial conditions and a system of physics similar to the operational version (HWRF) provides the best results in terms of both track and intensity prediction. Use of the HWRF initial conditions in the HWRFX model provides reasonable skill, particularly when used in cases with initially strong storms (hurricane strength). However, initially weak storms (below hurricane strength) posed special challenges for the models. For the weaker storm cases, none of the predictions from the HWRFX runs or the operational GFDL forecasts provided any consistent improvement when compared to the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with an inland decay component (DSHIPS). |
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AbstractList | Abstract
This paper provides an account of the performance of an experimental version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting system (HWRFX) for 87 cases of Atlantic tropical cyclones during the 2005, 2007, and 2009 hurricane seasons. The HWRFX system was used to study the influence of model grid resolution, initial conditions, and physics. For each case, the model was run to produce 126 h of forecast with two versions of horizontal resolution, namely, (i) a parent domain at a resolution of about 27 km with a 9-km moving nest (27:9) and (ii) a parent domain at a resolution of 9 km with a 3-km moving nest (9:3). The former was selected to be consistent with the current operational resolution, while the latter is the first step in testing the impact of finer resolutions for future versions of the operational model. The two configurations were run with initial conditions for tropical cyclones obtained from the operational Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and HWRF models. Sensitivity experiments were also conducted with the physical parameterization scheme. The study shows that the 9:3 HWRFX system using the GFDL initial conditions and a system of physics similar to the operational version (HWRF) provides the best results in terms of both track and intensity prediction. Use of the HWRF initial conditions in the HWRFX model provides reasonable skill, particularly when used in cases with initially strong storms (hurricane strength). However, initially weak storms (below hurricane strength) posed special challenges for the models. For the weaker storm cases, none of the predictions from the HWRFX runs or the operational GFDL forecasts provided any consistent improvement when compared to the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with an inland decay component (DSHIPS). This paper provides an account of the performance of an experimental version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting system (HWRFX) for 87 cases of Atlantic tropical cyclones during the 2005, 2007, and 2009 hurricane seasons. The HWRFX system was used to study the influence of model grid resolution, initial conditions, and physics. For each case, the model was run to produce 126 h of forecast with two versions of horizontal resolution, namely, (i) a parent domain at a resolution of about 27 km with a 9-km moving nest (27:9) and (ii) a parent domain at a resolution of 9 kmwith a 3-km moving nest (9:3). The former was selected to be consistent with the current operational resolution, while the latter is the first step in testing the impact of finer resolutions for future versions of the operational model. The two configurations were run with initial conditions for tropical cyclones obtained from the operational Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) andHWRFmodels. Sensitivity experiments were also conducted with the physical parameterization scheme. The study shows that the 9:3 HWRFX system using the GFDL initial conditions and a system of physics similar to the operational version (HWRF) provides the best results in terms of both track and intensity prediction. Use of the HWRF initial conditions in the HWRFX model provides reasonable skill, particularly when used in cases with initially strong storms (hurricane strength). However, initially weak storms (below hurricane strength) posed special challenges for the models. For the weaker storm cases, none of the predictions from the HWRFX runs or the operational GFDL forecasts provided any consistent improvement when compared to the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with an inland decay component (DSHIPS). [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] This paper provides an account of the performance of an experimental version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting system (HWRFX) for 87 cases of Atlantic tropical cyclones during the 2005, 2007, and 2009 hurricane seasons. The HWRFX system was used to study the influence of model grid resolution, initial conditions, and physics. For each case, the model was run to produce 126 h of forecast with two versions of horizontal resolution, namely, (i) a parent domain at a resolution of about 27 km with a 9-km moving nest (27:9) and (ii) a parent domain at a resolution of 9 km with a 3-km moving nest (9:3). The former was selected to be consistent with the current operational resolution, while the latter is the first step in testing the impact of finer resolutions for future versions of the operational model. The two configurations were run with initial conditions for tropical cyclones obtained from the operational Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and HWRF models. Sensitivity experiments were also conducted with the physical parameterization scheme. The study shows that the 9:3 HWRFX system using the GFDL initial conditions and a system of physics similar to the operational version (HWRF) provides the best results in terms of both track and intensity prediction. Use of the HWRF initial conditions in the HWRFX model provides reasonable skill, particularly when used in cases with initially strong storms (hurricane strength). However, initially weak storms (below hurricane strength) posed special challenges for the models. For the weaker storm cases, none of the predictions from the HWRFX runs or the operational GFDL forecasts provided any consistent improvement when compared to the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with an inland decay component (DSHIPS). |
Author | GOLDENBERG, Stanley QUIRINO, Thiago XUEJIN ZHANG GOPALAKRISHNAN, Sundararaman G TALLAPRAGADA, Vijay MARKS, Frank ATLAS, Robert YEH, Kao-San |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Sundararaman G surname: GOPALAKRISHNAN fullname: GOPALAKRISHNAN, Sundararaman G organization: NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida, United States – sequence: 2 givenname: Stanley surname: GOLDENBERG fullname: GOLDENBERG, Stanley organization: NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida, United States – sequence: 3 givenname: Thiago surname: QUIRINO fullname: QUIRINO, Thiago organization: NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida, United States – sequence: 4 surname: XUEJIN ZHANG fullname: XUEJIN ZHANG organization: Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, United States – sequence: 5 givenname: Frank surname: MARKS fullname: MARKS, Frank organization: NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida, United States – sequence: 6 givenname: Kao-San surname: YEH fullname: YEH, Kao-San organization: Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, United States – sequence: 7 givenname: Robert surname: ATLAS fullname: ATLAS, Robert organization: NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, Florida, United States – sequence: 8 givenname: Vijay surname: TALLAPRAGADA fullname: TALLAPRAGADA, Vijay organization: NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Environmental Modeling Center, Washington, D.C, United States |
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References | Kurihara (2020061509171955300_bib30) 1975; 32 Powell (2020061509171955300_bib41) 1998; 77-78 Gross (2020061509171955300_bib20) 1999 Willoughby (2020061509171955300_bib50) 1990; 47 Gallus (2020061509171955300_bib14) 2006; 134 Zhang (2020061509171955300_bib60) 2011; 139 Knaff (2020061509171955300_bib29) 2003; 18 Davis (2020061509171955300_bib5) 2008; 136 Tuleya (2020061509171955300_bib48) 1982; 110 Riehl (2020061509171955300_bib43) 1954 Rogers (2020061509171955300_bib44) 2010; 67 Kain (2020061509171955300_bib27) 1992; 49 Zhang (2020061509171955300_bib56) 2001; 129 Zhang (2020061509171955300_bib59) 2011; 139 Tuleya (2020061509171955300_bib47) 1978; 35 Yau (2020061509171955300_bib52) 2004; 132 Noh (2020061509171955300_bib40) 2003; 107 DeMaria (2020061509171955300_bib9) 2006; 45 Hong (2020061509171955300_bib21) 1996; 124 DeMaria (2020061509171955300_bib7) 1999; 14 Rappaport (2020061509171955300_bib42) 2009; 24 DeMaria (2020061509171955300_bib8) 2005; 20 2020061509171955300_bib13 Willoughby (2020061509171955300_bib51) 1990; 47 Ginis (2020061509171955300_bib15) 1999 Bender (2020061509171955300_bib3) 2007; 135 Liu (2020061509171955300_bib34) 2006 Davis (2020061509171955300_bib6) 2011; 13 Kurihara (2020061509171955300_bib32) 1995; 123 Marks (2020061509171955300_bib37) 1987; 44 Tuleya (2020061509171955300_bib46) 1975; 32 Yeh (2020061509171955300_bib53) 2012 Zhang (2020061509171955300_bib55) 2000; 128 Liu (2020061509171955300_bib35) 1997; 125 Janjić (2020061509171955300_bib24) 2003; 82 Janjić (2020061509171955300_bib23) 1990; 118 Ferrier (2020061509171955300_bib11) 2002 Willoughby (2020061509171955300_bib49) 1979; 84 Zhang (2020061509171955300_bib57) 2002; 130 Zhang (2020061509171955300_bib61) 2011; 13 Gopalakrishnan (2020061509171955300_bib18) 2010 Aberson (2020061509171955300_bib1) 1998; 13 Zhang (2020061509171955300_bib58) 2012 Li (2020061509171955300_bib33) 2009; 87 Gopalakrishnan (2020061509171955300_bib17) 2006 Hong (2020061509171955300_bib22) 1998; 129 Marks (2020061509171955300_bib38) 1992; 49 Kurihara (2020061509171955300_bib31) 1974; 31 Jarvinen (2020061509171955300_bib26) 1979 Aberson (2020061509171955300_bib2) 1994; 122 Kaplan (2020061509171955300_bib28) 2010; 25 Gopalakrishnan (2020061509171955300_bib19) 2011; 139 Ek (2020061509171955300_bib10) 2003; 108 Rotunno (2020061509171955300_bib45) 2009; 90 Chen (2020061509171955300_bib4) 2011; 26 Janjić (2020061509171955300_bib25) 2001; 129 Fierro (2020061509171955300_bib12) 2009; 137 Neumann (2020061509171955300_bib39) 1972 Zhang (2020061509171955300_bib54) 1999; 127 Gopalakrishnan (2020061509171955300_bib16) 2002; 130 Liu (2020061509171955300_bib36) 1999; 127 |
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This paper provides an account of the performance of an experimental version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting system (HWRFX) for 87... This paper provides an account of the performance of an experimental version of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting system (HWRFX) for 87 cases of... |
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SubjectTerms | Cyclones Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Fluid dynamics Hurricanes Hydrodynamics Meteorology Physics Storms Studies Tropical cyclones Weather forecasting |
Title | Toward Improving High-Resolution Numerical Hurricane Forecasting: Influence of Model Horizontal Grid Resolution, Initialization, and Physics |
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