We'll never have a model of an AI major-general: Artificial Intelligence, command decisions, and kitsch visions of war

Military AI optimists predict future AI assisting or making command decisions. We instead argue that, at a fundamental level, these predictions are dangerously wrong. The nature of war demands decisions based on abductive logic, whilst machine learning (or 'narrow AI') relies on inductive...

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Published inJournal of strategic studies Vol. 47; no. 1; pp. 116 - 146
Main Authors Hunter, Cameron, Bowen, Bleddyn E.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published England Routledge 02.01.2024
Taylor & Francis Ltd
Subjects
Artificial intelligence
Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Clausewitz
Commands
decision-making
Decisions
Logic
Machine learning
Military aid
Optimism
problem of induction
Strategy
tactics
technological determinism
War
Clausewitz
Artificial Intelligence (AI)
decision-making
Strategy
tactics
problem of induction
technological determinism
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Abstract Military AI optimists predict future AI assisting or making command decisions. We instead argue that, at a fundamental level, these predictions are dangerously wrong. The nature of war demands decisions based on abductive logic, whilst machine learning (or 'narrow AI') relies on inductive logic. The two forms of logic are not interchangeable, and therefore AI's limited utility in command - both tactical and strategic - is not something that can be solved by more data or more computing power. Many defence and government leaders are therefore proceeding with a false view of the nature of AI and of war itself.
AbstractList Military AI optimists predict future AI assisting or making command decisions. We instead argue that, at a fundamental level, these predictions are dangerously wrong. The nature of war demands decisions based on abductive logic, whilst machine learning (or ‘narrow AI’) relies on inductive logic. The two forms of logic are not interchangeable, and therefore AI’s limited utility in command – both tactical and strategic – is not something that can be solved by more data or more computing power. Many defence and government leaders are therefore proceeding with a false view of the nature of AI and of war itself.
Author Bowen, Bleddyn E.
Hunter, Cameron
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  givenname: Bleddyn E.
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  surname: Bowen
  fullname: Bowen, Bleddyn E.
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Copyright 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. 2023
2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
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Issue 1
Keywords Clausewitz
Artificial Intelligence (AI)
decision-making
Strategy
tactics
problem of induction
technological determinism
Language English
License open-access: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/: This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way. The terms on which this article has been published allow the posting of the Accepted Manuscript in a repository by the author(s) or with their consent.
2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
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Snippet Military AI optimists predict future AI assisting or making command decisions. We instead argue that, at a fundamental level, these predictions are dangerously...
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StartPage 116
SubjectTerms Artificial intelligence
Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Clausewitz
Commands
decision-making
Decisions
Logic
Machine learning
Military aid
Optimism
problem of induction
Strategy
tactics
technological determinism
War
Title We'll never have a model of an AI major-general: Artificial Intelligence, command decisions, and kitsch visions of war
URI https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01402390.2023.2241648
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38495449
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Volume 47
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