Correlation Analysis for the Attack of Bacillary Dysentery and Meteorological Factors Based on the Chinese Medicine Theory of Yunqi and the Medical-Meteorological Forecast Model

• Published in: Chinese journal of integrative medicine Vol. 19; no. 3; pp. 182 - 186
• Main Author: 马师雷 汤巧玲 刘宏伟 贺娟 高思华
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Heidelberg Chinese Association of Traditional and Western Medicine 01.03.2013
• Subjects: China - epidemiology; Dysentery, Bacillary - epidemiology; Forecasting; Humans; Incidence; Medicine; Medicine & Public Health; Medicine, Chinese Traditional; Meteorological Concepts; Models, Theoretical; Original Article; Statistics as Topic; 中国; 医学理论; 医疗; 攻击; 气象因子; 相关性分析; 细菌性痢疾; 预报模型; China; bacillary dysentery; Chinese medicine; meteorological factors; the theory of Yunqi; medical-meteorological forecast model; back-propagation artificial neural net-work
• ISSN: 1672-0415; 1993-0402; 1993-0402
• DOI: 10.1007/s11655-012-1239-z

Objective： To explore the impact of meteorological factors on the outbreak of bacillary dysentery, so as to provide suggestions for disease prevention. Methods： Based on the Chinese medicine theory of Yunqi, the descriptive statistics, single-factor correlation analysis and back-propagation artificial neural net-work were conducted using data on five basic meteorological factors and data on incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China, for the period 1970-2004. Results： The incidence of bacillary dysentery showed significant positive correlation relationship with the precipitation, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and temperature, respectively. The incidence of bacillary dysentery showed a negatively correlated relationship with the wind speed and the change trend of average wind speed. The results of medical-meteorological forecast model showed a relatively high accuracy rate. Conclusions： There is a close relationship between the meteorological factors and the incidence of bacillary dysentery, but the contributions of which to the onset of bacillary dysentery are different to each other.