A quantitative model for danger degree evaluation of staged operation of earth dam reservoir in flood season and its application

• Published in: Water Science and Engineering Vol. 11; no. 1; pp. 81 - 87
• Main Authors: Mo, Chong-xun, Mo, Gui-yan, Yang, Qing, Ruan, Yu-li, Jiang, Qing-ling, Jin, Ju-liang
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.01.2018; Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China%Changjiang Institute of Technology,Wuhan 430212,China%School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China; Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China; College of Civil and Architectural Engineering,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China; Elsevier
• Subjects: Danger degree; Earth dam; Overtopping risk rate; Quantitative evaluation; Reservoir staged operation in flood season; Danger degree; Overtopping risk rate; Earth dam; Quantitative evaluation; Reservoir staged operation in flood season
• ISSN: 1674-2370
• DOI: 10.1016/j.wse.2017.07.001

Based on the natural disaster risk evaluation mode, a quantitative danger degree evaluation model was developed to evaluate the danger degree of earth dam reservoir staged operation in the flood season. A formula for the overtopping risk rate of the earth dam reservoir staged operation was established, with consideration of the joint effect of flood and wind waves in the flood sub-seasons with the Monte Carlo method, and the integrated overtopping risk rate for the whole flood season was obtained via the total probability approach. A composite normalized function was used to transform the dam overtopping risk rate into the danger degree, on a scale of 0–1. Danger degree gradating criteria were divided by four significant characteristic values of the dam overtopping rate, and corresponding guidelines for danger evaluation are explained in detail in this paper. Examples indicated that the dam overtopping danger degree of the Chengbihe Reservoir in China was 0.33–0.57, within the range of moderate danger level, and the flood-limiting water level (FLWL) can be adjusted to 185.00 m for the early and main flood seasons, and 185.00—187.50 m for the late flood season. The proposed quantitative model offers a theoretical basis for determination of the value of the danger degree of an earth dam reservoir under normal operation as well as the optimal scheduling scheme for the reservoir in each stage of the flood season.