Conditional Exceedance Probabilities

• Published in: Monthly weather review Vol. 135; no. 2; pp. 363 - 372
• Main Authors: Mason, Simon J., Galpin, Jacqueline S., Goddard, Lisa, Graham, Nicholas E., Rajartnam, Balakanapathy
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Boston, MA American Meteorological Society 01.02.2007
• Subjects: Binomial distribution; Component reliability; Conditional probability; Confidence intervals; Context; Continuity (mathematics); Decomposition; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; Expected values; External geophysics; Frequencies; General circulation models; Generalized linear models; Histograms; Meteorology; Precipitation; Probability; Probability theory; Procedures; Quantiles; Reliability; Simulation; Statistical analysis; Statistical tests; Weather analysis and prediction; Weather forecasting; Ensemble simulation; Weather forecast; Probabilistic approach; atmospheric precipitation; reliability; Forecast skill; Conditional probability; Statistical forecasting

Probabilistic forecasts of variables measured on a categorical or ordinal scale, such as precipitation occurrence or temperatures exceeding a threshold, are typically verified by comparing the relative frequency with which the target event occurs given different levels of forecast confidence. The de...