CREATION AND COMMUNICATION OF HURRICANE RISK INFORMATION
Reducing loss of life and harm when a hurricane threatens depends on people receiving hurricane risk information that they can interpret and use in protective decisions. To understand and improve hurricane risk communication, this article examines how National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters at th...
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Published in | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 93; no. 8; pp. 1133 - 1145 |
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Main Authors | , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Boston
American Meteorological Society
01.08.2012
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Subjects | |
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Abstract | Reducing loss of life and harm when a hurricane threatens depends on people receiving hurricane risk information that they can interpret and use in protective decisions. To understand and improve hurricane risk communication, this article examines how National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and local weather forecast offices, local emergency managers, and local television and radio media create and convey hurricane risk information. Data from in-depth interviews and observational sessions with members of these groups from Greater Miami were analyzed to examine their roles, goals, and interactions, and to identify strengths and challenges in how they communicate with each other and with the public. Together, these groups succeed in partnering with each other to make information about approaching hurricane threats widely available. Yet NWS forecasters sometimes find that the information they provide is not used as they intended; media personnel want streamlined information from NWS and emergency managers that emphasizes the timing of hazards and the recommended response and protective actions; and emergency managers need forecast uncertainty information that can help them plan for different scenarios. Thus, we recommend that warning system partners 1) build understanding of each other's needs and constraints; 2) ensure formalized, yet flexible mechanisms exist for exchanging critical information; 3) improve hurricane risk communication by integrating social science knowledge to design and test messages with intended audiences; and 4) evaluate, test, and improve the NWS hurricane-related product suite in collaboration with social scientists. |
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AbstractList | Reducing loss of life and harm when a hurricane threatens depends on people receiving hurricane risk information that they can interpret and use in protective decisions. To understand and improve hurricane risk communication, this article examines how National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and local weather forecast offices, local emergency managers, and local television and radio media create and convey hurricane risk information. Data from in-depth interviews and observational sessions with members of these groups from Greater Miami were analyzed to examine their roles, goals, and interactions, and to identify strengths and challenges in how they communicate with each other and with the public. Together, these groups succeed in partnering with each other to make information about approaching hurricane threats widely available. Yet NWS forecasters sometimes find that the information they provide is not used as they intended; media personnel want streamlined information from NWS and emergency managers that emphasizes the timing of hazards and the recommended response and protective actions; and emergency managers need forecast uncertainty information that can help them plan for different scenarios. Thus, we recommend that warning system partners 1) build understanding of each other's needs and constraints; 2) ensure formalized, yet flexible mechanisms exist for exchanging critical information; 3) improve hurricane risk communication by integrating social science knowledge to design and test messages with intended audiences; and 4) evaluate, test, and improve the NWS hurricane-related product suite in collaboration with social scientists. Information about geographical areas at high risk from hurricanes is also improving, for example, through updated mapping, advances in storm surge modeling, and more precise determination of evacuation zones (Rappaport et al. 2009; Florida Division of Emergency Management 2011). [...]social science research is developing a growing understanding of the factors that contribute to people's hurricane preparation and evacuation decision making (Dow and Cutter 1998; Dash and Morrow 2001; Gladwin et al. 2001; Gladwin and Morrow 2005; Dash and Gladwin 2007; Zhang et al. 2007; Taylor et al. 2009; Lazo et al. 2010; Morss and Hayden 2010). Doing so will require NWS working with emergency managers, the media, the private sector, and other warning system partners as well as with social scientists. Because the hurricane warning system environment is continually evolving, the NWS will need to implement such evaluations at regular intervals. |
Author | Demuth, Julie L. Lazo, Jeffrey K. Morss, Rebecca E. Morrow, Betty Hearn |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Julie L. surname: Demuth fullname: Demuth, Julie L. organization: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado – sequence: 2 givenname: Rebecca E. surname: Morss fullname: Morss, Rebecca E. organization: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado – sequence: 3 givenname: Betty Hearn surname: Morrow fullname: Morrow, Betty Hearn organization: SocResearch, Miami, Florida – sequence: 4 givenname: Jeffrey K. surname: Lazo fullname: Lazo, Jeffrey K. organization: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado |
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SubjectTerms | Collaboration Emergency management Emergency preparedness Employment forecasting Evacuation Hurricanes Meteorology Private sector Product development Social sciences Statistical weather forecasting Storm surges Studies Warning systems Warnings Weather Weather forecasting |
Title | CREATION AND COMMUNICATION OF HURRICANE RISK INFORMATION |
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