Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa

Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the drought will change and the way how droughts would affect society and the environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. This study...

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Published inEarth's future Vol. 8; no. 7
Main Authors Haile, Gebremedhin Gebremeskel, Tang, Qiuhong, Hosseini‐Moghari, Seyed‐Mohammad, Liu, Xingcai, Gebremicael, T. G., Leng, Guoyong, Kebede, Asfaw, Xu, Ximeng, Yun, Xiaobo
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Bognor Regis John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.07.2020
Wiley
Subjects
20th century
21st century
Climate change
Climate models
Datasets
Displaced persons
Drought
Drought characteristics
Drought patterns
East Africa
Environmental changes
Environmental impact
Evapotranspiration
Extreme drought
Extreme weather
Food security
Global climate
Global climate models
Population growth
Precipitation
Rain
Regions
SPEI
SPI
Standardized precipitation index
Temperature effects
uncertainty
Djibouti
Eritrea
Sudan
Africa
Tanzania
Somalia
Kenya
Ethiopia
East Africa
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Abstract Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the drought will change and the way how droughts would affect society and the environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. This study aimed at assessing future drought changes using an ensemble of five Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over East Africa. To this end, drought characteristics were investigated under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the near term (the 2020s; 2011–2040), midcentury (2050s; 2041–2070), and end of century (2080s; 2071–2,100). The changes of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were first compared, and the SPEI was used for measuring future droughts as it showed stronger changes due to its inclusion of temperature effects. Drought area in East Africa is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century by 16%, 36%, and 54% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively, with the areas affected by extreme drought increasing more rapidly than severe and moderate droughts. Spatially, drought event, duration, frequency and intensity would increase in Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, and South Sudan, but generally decrease in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopian highlands. Results also confirm that drought changes over East Africa follow the “dry gets drier and wet gets wetter” paradigm. The findings provide important guidance for improving identification of causes, minimizing the impacts and enhancing the resilience to droughts in East Africa. Key Points We examined the impact of changes in precipitation and temperature on drought characteristics over East Africa during 1981–2099 Precipitation and temperature will increase over East Africa; however, the temperature impact is dominant leading to extreme droughts Drought area in East Africa is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century by 16%, 37%, and 54% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively
AbstractList Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the drought will change and the way how droughts would affect society and the environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. This study aimed at assessing future drought changes using an ensemble of five Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over East Africa. To this end, drought characteristics were investigated under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the near term (the 2020s; 2011–2040), midcentury (2050s; 2041–2070), and end of century (2080s; 2071–2,100). The changes of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were first compared, and the SPEI was used for measuring future droughts as it showed stronger changes due to its inclusion of temperature effects. Drought area in East Africa is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century by 16%, 36%, and 54% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively, with the areas affected by extreme drought increasing more rapidly than severe and moderate droughts. Spatially, drought event, duration, frequency and intensity would increase in Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, and South Sudan, but generally decrease in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopian highlands. Results also confirm that drought changes over East Africa follow the “dry gets drier and wet gets wetter” paradigm. The findings provide important guidance for improving identification of causes, minimizing the impacts and enhancing the resilience to droughts in East Africa.
Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the drought will change and the way how droughts would affect society and the environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. This study aimed at assessing future drought changes using an ensemble of five Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over East Africa. To this end, drought characteristics were investigated under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the near term (the 2020s; 2011–2040), midcentury (2050s; 2041–2070), and end of century (2080s; 2071–2,100). The changes of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were first compared, and the SPEI was used for measuring future droughts as it showed stronger changes due to its inclusion of temperature effects. Drought area in East Africa is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century by 16%, 36%, and 54% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively, with the areas affected by extreme drought increasing more rapidly than severe and moderate droughts. Spatially, drought event, duration, frequency and intensity would increase in Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, and South Sudan, but generally decrease in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopian highlands. Results also confirm that drought changes over East Africa follow the “dry gets drier and wet gets wetter” paradigm. The findings provide important guidance for improving identification of causes, minimizing the impacts and enhancing the resilience to droughts in East Africa. We examined the impact of changes in precipitation and temperature on drought characteristics over East Africa during 1981–2099 Precipitation and temperature will increase over East Africa; however, the temperature impact is dominant leading to extreme droughts Drought area in East Africa is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century by 16%, 37%, and 54% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively
Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the drought will change and the way how droughts would affect society and the environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. This study aimed at assessing future drought changes using an ensemble of five Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over East Africa. To this end, drought characteristics were investigated under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the near term (the 2020s; 2011–2040), midcentury (2050s; 2041–2070), and end of century (2080s; 2071–2,100). The changes of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were first compared, and the SPEI was used for measuring future droughts as it showed stronger changes due to its inclusion of temperature effects. Drought area in East Africa is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century by 16%, 36%, and 54% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively, with the areas affected by extreme drought increasing more rapidly than severe and moderate droughts. Spatially, drought event, duration, frequency and intensity would increase in Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, and South Sudan, but generally decrease in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopian highlands. Results also confirm that drought changes over East Africa follow the “dry gets drier and wet gets wetter” paradigm. The findings provide important guidance for improving identification of causes, minimizing the impacts and enhancing the resilience to droughts in East Africa. Key Points We examined the impact of changes in precipitation and temperature on drought characteristics over East Africa during 1981–2099 Precipitation and temperature will increase over East Africa; however, the temperature impact is dominant leading to extreme droughts Drought area in East Africa is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century by 16%, 37%, and 54% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively
Abstract Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the drought will change and the way how droughts would affect society and the environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. This study aimed at assessing future drought changes using an ensemble of five Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) over East Africa. To this end, drought characteristics were investigated under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 in the near term (the 2020s; 2011–2040), midcentury (2050s; 2041–2070), and end of century (2080s; 2071–2,100). The changes of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were first compared, and the SPEI was used for measuring future droughts as it showed stronger changes due to its inclusion of temperature effects. Drought area in East Africa is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century by 16%, 36%, and 54% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively, with the areas affected by extreme drought increasing more rapidly than severe and moderate droughts. Spatially, drought event, duration, frequency and intensity would increase in Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, and South Sudan, but generally decrease in Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopian highlands. Results also confirm that drought changes over East Africa follow the “dry gets drier and wet gets wetter” paradigm. The findings provide important guidance for improving identification of causes, minimizing the impacts and enhancing the resilience to droughts in East Africa.
Author Kebede, Asfaw
Gebremicael, T. G.
Liu, Xingcai
Leng, Guoyong
Xu, Ximeng
Yun, Xiaobo
Haile, Gebremedhin Gebremeskel
Tang, Qiuhong
Hosseini‐Moghari, Seyed‐Mohammad
Author_xml – sequence: 1
  givenname: Gebremedhin Gebremeskel
  orcidid: 0000-0003-2807-5330
  surname: Haile
  fullname: Haile, Gebremedhin Gebremeskel
  organization: Tigray Agricultural Research Institute
– sequence: 2
  givenname: Qiuhong
  orcidid: 0000-0002-0886-6699
  surname: Tang
  fullname: Tang, Qiuhong
  email: tangqh@igsnrr.ac.cn
  organization: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
– sequence: 3
  givenname: Seyed‐Mohammad
  orcidid: 0000-0001-6766-5283
  surname: Hosseini‐Moghari
  fullname: Hosseini‐Moghari, Seyed‐Mohammad
  organization: Chinese Academy of Sciences
– sequence: 4
  givenname: Xingcai
  orcidid: 0000-0001-5726-7353
  surname: Liu
  fullname: Liu, Xingcai
  organization: Chinese Academy of Sciences
– sequence: 5
  givenname: T. G.
  orcidid: 0000-0002-2521-4772
  surname: Gebremicael
  fullname: Gebremicael, T. G.
  organization: Tigray Agricultural Research Institute
– sequence: 6
  givenname: Guoyong
  surname: Leng
  fullname: Leng, Guoyong
  organization: Chinese Academy of Sciences
– sequence: 7
  givenname: Asfaw
  orcidid: 0000-0002-6496-7216
  surname: Kebede
  fullname: Kebede, Asfaw
  organization: Haramaya University, Institute of Technology
– sequence: 8
  givenname: Ximeng
  orcidid: 0000-0002-0058-5040
  surname: Xu
  fullname: Xu, Ximeng
  organization: Chinese Academy of Sciences
– sequence: 9
  givenname: Xiaobo
  surname: Yun
  fullname: Yun, Xiaobo
  organization: Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Snippet Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how much the...
Abstract Investigation of the pressing impacts of climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude of how...
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SubjectTerms 20th century
21st century
Climate change
Climate models
Datasets
Displaced persons
Drought
Drought characteristics
Drought patterns
East Africa
Environmental changes
Environmental impact
Evapotranspiration
Extreme drought
Extreme weather
Food security
Global climate
Global climate models
Population growth
Precipitation
Rain
Regions
SPEI
SPI
Standardized precipitation index
Temperature effects
uncertainty
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Title Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa
URI https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029%2F2020EF001502
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Volume 8
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