Quantitative analysis of the risk of spread of equine influenza associated with movements of vaccinated horses from infected areas during the Australian outbreak
Simulation models were developed to quantify the likelihood of equine influenza virus infection entering pre‐movement isolation, persisting through pre‐ and post‐movement isolation periods without being detected by scheduled laboratory testing, and escaping to infect susceptible horses at a destinat...
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Published in | Australian veterinary journal Vol. 89; no. s1; pp. 103 - 108 |
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Main Authors | , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Melbourne, Australia
Blackwell Publishing Asia
01.07.2011
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Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | Simulation models were developed to quantify the likelihood of equine influenza virus infection entering pre‐movement isolation, persisting through pre‐ and post‐movement isolation periods without being detected by scheduled laboratory testing, and escaping to infect susceptible horses at a destination. The mean probability of escape ranged from 1 in 1,200,000 to 1 in 600,000 depending on lot size. For 95% of iterations the probability of escape was less than 1 in 200,000, regardless of lot size. For a large group of 600 horses processed as multiple separate lots, the mean probability of escape ranged from 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 56,000 depending on lot size. As a result of this analysis, a modified protocol, with two tests during pre‐movement isolation and an additional test during post‐movement isolation at the Chief Veterinary Officer's discretion, was implemented. |
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Bibliography: | istex:7EEF2255F81E1DA05C65320AAEBAA67D60A9F262 ark:/67375/WNG-FKJDD8VQ-F ArticleID:AVJ761 ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 ObjectType-Article-2 ObjectType-Feature-1 |
ISSN: | 0005-0423 1751-0813 |
DOI: | 10.1111/j.1751-0813.2011.00761.x |