An integrative phenology and climatic suitability model for emerald ash borer
Decision support models that predict both when and where to expect emerald ash borer (EAB), Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), are needed for the development and implementation of effective management strategies against this major invasive pest of ash ( species) in North America and other regions...
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| Published in | Frontiers in insect science Vol. 3; p. 1239173 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Switzerland
Frontiers Media S.A
29.08.2023
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 2673-8600 2673-8600 |
| DOI | 10.3389/finsc.2023.1239173 |
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| Abstract | Decision support models that predict both when and where to expect emerald ash borer (EAB),
Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), are needed for the development and implementation of effective management strategies against this major invasive pest of ash (
species) in North America and other regions such as Europe. We present a spatialized model of phenology and climatic suitability for EAB for use in the Degree-Days, Risk, and Phenological event mapping (DDRP) platform, which is an open-source decision support tool to help detect, monitor, and manage invasive threats.
We evaluated the model using presence records from three geographic regions (China, North America, and Europe) and a phenological dataset consisting primarily of observations from the northeastern and midwestern United States. To demonstrate the model, we produced phenological event maps for a recent year and tested for trends in EAB's phenology and potential distribution over a recent 20-year period.
Overall, the model exhibited strong performance. Presence was correctly estimated for over 99% of presence records and predicted dates of adult phenological events corresponded closely with observed dates, with a mean absolute error of
7 days and low estimates of bias. Climate stresses were insufficient to exclude EAB from areas with native
species in North America and Europe; however, extreme weather events, climate warming, and an inability for EAB to complete its life cycle may reduce suitability for some areas. Significant trends toward earlier adult emergence over 20 years occurred in only some areas.
Near real-time model forecasts for the conterminous United States are available at two websites to provide end-users with decision-support for surveillance and management of this invasive pest. Forecasts of adult emergence and egg hatch are particularly relevant for surveillance and for managing existing populations with pesticide treatments and parasitoid introductions. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | Decision support models that predict both when and where to expect emerald ash borer (EAB),
Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), are needed for the development and implementation of effective management strategies against this major invasive pest of ash (
species) in North America and other regions such as Europe. We present a spatialized model of phenology and climatic suitability for EAB for use in the Degree-Days, Risk, and Phenological event mapping (DDRP) platform, which is an open-source decision support tool to help detect, monitor, and manage invasive threats.
We evaluated the model using presence records from three geographic regions (China, North America, and Europe) and a phenological dataset consisting primarily of observations from the northeastern and midwestern United States. To demonstrate the model, we produced phenological event maps for a recent year and tested for trends in EAB's phenology and potential distribution over a recent 20-year period.
Overall, the model exhibited strong performance. Presence was correctly estimated for over 99% of presence records and predicted dates of adult phenological events corresponded closely with observed dates, with a mean absolute error of
7 days and low estimates of bias. Climate stresses were insufficient to exclude EAB from areas with native
species in North America and Europe; however, extreme weather events, climate warming, and an inability for EAB to complete its life cycle may reduce suitability for some areas. Significant trends toward earlier adult emergence over 20 years occurred in only some areas.
Near real-time model forecasts for the conterminous United States are available at two websites to provide end-users with decision-support for surveillance and management of this invasive pest. Forecasts of adult emergence and egg hatch are particularly relevant for surveillance and for managing existing populations with pesticide treatments and parasitoid introductions. Decision support models that predict both when and where to expect emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), are needed for the development and implementation of effective management strategies against this major invasive pest of ash (Fraxinus species) in North America and other regions such as Europe. We present a spatialized model of phenology and climatic suitability for EAB for use in the Degree-Days, Risk, and Phenological event mapping (DDRP) platform, which is an open-source decision support tool to help detect, monitor, and manage invasive threats.IntroductionDecision support models that predict both when and where to expect emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), are needed for the development and implementation of effective management strategies against this major invasive pest of ash (Fraxinus species) in North America and other regions such as Europe. We present a spatialized model of phenology and climatic suitability for EAB for use in the Degree-Days, Risk, and Phenological event mapping (DDRP) platform, which is an open-source decision support tool to help detect, monitor, and manage invasive threats.We evaluated the model using presence records from three geographic regions (China, North America, and Europe) and a phenological dataset consisting primarily of observations from the northeastern and midwestern United States. To demonstrate the model, we produced phenological event maps for a recent year and tested for trends in EAB's phenology and potential distribution over a recent 20-year period.MethodsWe evaluated the model using presence records from three geographic regions (China, North America, and Europe) and a phenological dataset consisting primarily of observations from the northeastern and midwestern United States. To demonstrate the model, we produced phenological event maps for a recent year and tested for trends in EAB's phenology and potential distribution over a recent 20-year period.Overall, the model exhibited strong performance. Presence was correctly estimated for over 99% of presence records and predicted dates of adult phenological events corresponded closely with observed dates, with a mean absolute error of ca. 7 days and low estimates of bias. Climate stresses were insufficient to exclude EAB from areas with native Fraxinus species in North America and Europe; however, extreme weather events, climate warming, and an inability for EAB to complete its life cycle may reduce suitability for some areas. Significant trends toward earlier adult emergence over 20 years occurred in only some areas.ResultsOverall, the model exhibited strong performance. Presence was correctly estimated for over 99% of presence records and predicted dates of adult phenological events corresponded closely with observed dates, with a mean absolute error of ca. 7 days and low estimates of bias. Climate stresses were insufficient to exclude EAB from areas with native Fraxinus species in North America and Europe; however, extreme weather events, climate warming, and an inability for EAB to complete its life cycle may reduce suitability for some areas. Significant trends toward earlier adult emergence over 20 years occurred in only some areas.Near real-time model forecasts for the conterminous United States are available at two websites to provide end-users with decision-support for surveillance and management of this invasive pest. Forecasts of adult emergence and egg hatch are particularly relevant for surveillance and for managing existing populations with pesticide treatments and parasitoid introductions.DiscussionNear real-time model forecasts for the conterminous United States are available at two websites to provide end-users with decision-support for surveillance and management of this invasive pest. Forecasts of adult emergence and egg hatch are particularly relevant for surveillance and for managing existing populations with pesticide treatments and parasitoid introductions. Decision support models that can predict both when and where to expect emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), are needed for the development and implementation of effective management strategies against this major invasive pest of ash (Fraxinus spp.) in North America and other regions such as Europe. We present a spatialized model of phenology and climatic suitability for EAB for use in the Degree-Days, Risk, and Phenological event mapping (DDRP) platform, which serves as an open-source decision support tool to help detect, monitor, and manage invasive threats. The model was evaluated using presence records from three geographic regions (China, North America, and Europe) and a phenological observation dataset from the northeastern and midwestern United States. To demonstrate the model, we produced phenological event maps for a recent year and tested for trends in EAB's phenology and potential distribution over 20 years. Overall, predictive accuracy of the model was high, with presence correctly estimated for over 99% of presence records and a mean absolute error of ca. 7 days for predictions of adult activities. The predicted potential distribution of EAB based on climate data for 20 years overlapped with the ranges of all native Fraxinus spp. in North America and in Europe. The predicted date of first adult emergence declines significantly in areas excluded by cold stress in some northern areas over the 20-year period, whereas some areas of southwestern North America became increasingly unsuitable due to heat stress. Near real-time model forecasts for the conterminous United States are available at two websites to provide end-users with decision-support for managing this invasive pest. Forecasts of adult emergence and egg hatch are particularly relevant for surveillance and for managing existing populations with pesticide treatments and parasitoid introductions. |
| Author | Coop, Leonard Duan, Jian J. Barker, Brittany S. Petrice, Toby R. |
| AuthorAffiliation | 3 United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Service, Beneficial Insects Introduction Research Unit , Newark, DE , United States 4 United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service, Northern Research Station , Lansing, MI , United States 2 Department of Horticulture, Oregon State University, Oregon State University , Corvallis, OR , United States 1 Oregon Integrated Pest Management Center, Oregon State University , Corvallis, OR , United States |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 3 United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Service, Beneficial Insects Introduction Research Unit , Newark, DE , United States – name: 2 Department of Horticulture, Oregon State University, Oregon State University , Corvallis, OR , United States – name: 4 United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service, Northern Research Station , Lansing, MI , United States – name: 1 Oregon Integrated Pest Management Center, Oregon State University , Corvallis, OR , United States |
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| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38469500$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Keywords | management Agrilus planipennis forecast thermal stresses surveillance Fraxinus invasive species |
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| Snippet | Decision support models that predict both when and where to expect emerald ash borer (EAB),
Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), are needed for the development... Decision support models that can predict both when and where to expect emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), are... Decision support models that predict both when and where to expect emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), are needed... |
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| SubjectTerms | adults Agrilus planipennis China data collection decision support systems Europe Fraxinus heat sums Insect Science insects meteorological data North America pests phenology risk |
| Title | An integrative phenology and climatic suitability model for emerald ash borer |
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