Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols'...

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Published inEnvironmental Research: Climate Vol. 2; no. 3; pp. 32001 - 32012
Main Authors Persad, G, Samset, B H, Wilcox, L J, Allen, Robert J, Bollasina, Massimo A, Booth, Ben B B, Bonfils, Céline, Crocker, Tom, Joshi, Manoj, Lund, Marianne T, Marvel, Kate, Merikanto, Joonas, Nordling, Kalle, Undorf, Sabine, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Westervelt, Daniel M, Zhao, Alcide
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Goddard Space Flight Center IOP Publishing 01.09.2023
Subjects
anthropogenic aerosol
climate change
climate risk
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Meteorology and Climatology
Climate Change
Anthropogenic Aerosol
Climate Risk
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Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols' climate and air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure and vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk, including those in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report, underrepresent aerosols' complex and regionally diverse climate effects, reducing them to a globally averaged offset to greenhouse gas warming. We argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society's ability to prepare for future climate change. We outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.
AbstractList Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols' climate and air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure and vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk, including those in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report, underrepresent aerosols' complex and regionally diverse climate effects, reducing them to a globally averaged offset to greenhouse gas warming. We argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society's ability to prepare for future climate change. We outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.
Audience PUBLIC
Author Merikanto, Joonas
Undorf, Sabine
Zhao, Alcide
Allen, Robert J
Bollasina, Massimo A
Lund, Marianne T
Nordling, Kalle
Wilcox, L J
van Vuuren, Detlef P
Booth, Ben B B
Joshi, Manoj
Marvel, Kate
Westervelt, Daniel M
Samset, B H
Bonfils, Céline
Crocker, Tom
Persad, G
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  surname: Zhao
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  organization: National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading , Reading, United Kingdom
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Issue 3
Keywords Climate Change
Anthropogenic Aerosol
Climate Risk
Language English
License Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
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GSFC
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Columbia University
AC52-07NA27344; CNH-L 1715557; 248834; 324182; 101003826; AC52–07NA27344
Research Council of Norway
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LLNL-JRNL-837367
National Science Foundation (NSF)
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SubjectTerms anthropogenic aerosol
climate change
climate risk
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Meteorology and Climatology
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Title Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments
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