Application of PSO (particle swarm optimization) and GA (genetic algorithm) techniques on demand estimation of oil in Iran
This paper presents application of PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) and GA (Genetic Algorithm) techniques to estimate oil demand in Iran, based on socio-economic indicators. The models are developed in two forms (exponential and linear) and applied to forecast oil demand in Iran. PSO–DEM and GA–DEM...
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Published in | Energy (Oxford) Vol. 35; no. 12; pp. 5223 - 5229 |
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Main Authors | , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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Elsevier Ltd
01.12.2010
Elsevier |
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Abstract | This paper presents application of PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) and GA (Genetic Algorithm) techniques to estimate oil demand in Iran, based on socio-economic indicators. The models are developed in two forms (exponential and linear) and applied to forecast oil demand in Iran. PSO–DEM and GA–DEM (PSO and GA demand estimation models) are developed to estimate the future oil demand values based on population, GDP (gross domestic product), import and export data. Oil consumption in Iran from 1981 to 2005 is considered as the case of this study. The available data is partly used for finding the optimal, or near optimal values of the weighting parameters (1981–1999) and partly for testing the models (2000–2005). For the best results of GA, the average relative errors on testing data were 2.83% and 1.72% for GA–DEMexponential and GA–DEMlinear, respectively. The corresponding values for PSO were 1.40% and 1.36% for PSO–DEMexponential and PSO–DEMlinear, respectively. Oil demand in Iran is forecasted up to year 2030. |
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AbstractList | This paper presents application of PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) and GA (Genetic Algorithm) techniques to estimate oil demand in Iran, based on socio-economic indicators. The models are developed in two forms (exponential and linear) and applied to forecast oil demand in Iran. PSO–DEM and GA–DEM (PSO and GA demand estimation models) are developed to estimate the future oil demand values based on population, GDP (gross domestic product), import and export data. Oil consumption in Iran from 1981 to 2005 is considered as the case of this study. The available data is partly used for finding the optimal, or near optimal values of the weighting parameters (1981–1999) and partly for testing the models (2000–2005). For the best results of GA, the average relative errors on testing data were 2.83% and 1.72% for GA–DEMexponential and GA–DEMlinear, respectively. The corresponding values for PSO were 1.40% and 1.36% for PSO–DEMexponential and PSO–DEMlinear, respectively. Oil demand in Iran is forecasted up to year 2030. This paper presents application of PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) and GA (Genetic Algorithm) techniques to estimate oil demand in Iran, based on socio-economic indicators. The models are developed in two forms (exponential and linear) and applied to forecast oil demand in Iran. PSO-DEM and GA-DEM (PSO and GA demand estimation models) are developed to estimate the future oil demand values based on population, GDP (gross domestic product), import and export data. Oil consumption in Iran from 1981 to 2005 is considered as the case of this study. The available data is partly used for finding the optimal, or near optimal values of the weighting parameters (1981-1999) and partly for testing the models (2000-2005). For the best results of GA, the average relative errors on testing data were 2.83% and 1.72% for GA-DEM sub(exponential) and GA-DEM sub(linear), respectively. The corresponding values for PSO were 1.40% and 1.36% for PSO-DEM sub(exponential) and PSO-DEM sub(linear), respectively. Oil demand in Iran is forecasted up to year 2030. |
Author | Behrang, M.A. Assari, M.R. Ghanbarzadeh, A. Assareh, E. |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: E. surname: Assareh fullname: Assareh, E. email: Ehsanolah.Assareh@gmail.com organization: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Young Researchers Club, Islamic Azad University, Dezful Branch, Iran – sequence: 2 givenname: M.A. surname: Behrang fullname: Behrang, M.A. organization: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Young Researchers Club, Islamic Azad University, Dezful Branch, Iran – sequence: 3 givenname: M.R. surname: Assari fullname: Assari, M.R. organization: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Jundi Shapour University, Dezful, Iran – sequence: 4 givenname: A. surname: Ghanbarzadeh fullname: Ghanbarzadeh, A. organization: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, Iran |
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Keywords | Demand PSO (particle swarm optimization) Projection Oil GA (genetic algorithm) Genetic algorithm Socioeconomic study Long term Modeling Particle swarm optimization Forecasting Petroleum |
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SubjectTerms | Applied sciences Demand Domestic Economic data Energy Energy economics Estimates Exact sciences and technology Exports Fossil fuels and derived products GA (genetic algorithm) General, economic and professional studies Genetic algorithms Marketing Mathematical models Methodology. Modelling Oil Optimization Projection PSO (particle swarm optimization) |
Title | Application of PSO (particle swarm optimization) and GA (genetic algorithm) techniques on demand estimation of oil in Iran |
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