Application of PSO (particle swarm optimization) and GA (genetic algorithm) techniques on demand estimation of oil in Iran

This paper presents application of PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) and GA (Genetic Algorithm) techniques to estimate oil demand in Iran, based on socio-economic indicators. The models are developed in two forms (exponential and linear) and applied to forecast oil demand in Iran. PSO–DEM and GA–DEM...

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Published inEnergy (Oxford) Vol. 35; no. 12; pp. 5223 - 5229
Main Authors Assareh, E., Behrang, M.A., Assari, M.R., Ghanbarzadeh, A.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.12.2010
Elsevier
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Abstract This paper presents application of PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) and GA (Genetic Algorithm) techniques to estimate oil demand in Iran, based on socio-economic indicators. The models are developed in two forms (exponential and linear) and applied to forecast oil demand in Iran. PSO–DEM and GA–DEM (PSO and GA demand estimation models) are developed to estimate the future oil demand values based on population, GDP (gross domestic product), import and export data. Oil consumption in Iran from 1981 to 2005 is considered as the case of this study. The available data is partly used for finding the optimal, or near optimal values of the weighting parameters (1981–1999) and partly for testing the models (2000–2005). For the best results of GA, the average relative errors on testing data were 2.83% and 1.72% for GA–DEMexponential and GA–DEMlinear, respectively. The corresponding values for PSO were 1.40% and 1.36% for PSO–DEMexponential and PSO–DEMlinear, respectively. Oil demand in Iran is forecasted up to year 2030.
AbstractList This paper presents application of PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) and GA (Genetic Algorithm) techniques to estimate oil demand in Iran, based on socio-economic indicators. The models are developed in two forms (exponential and linear) and applied to forecast oil demand in Iran. PSO–DEM and GA–DEM (PSO and GA demand estimation models) are developed to estimate the future oil demand values based on population, GDP (gross domestic product), import and export data. Oil consumption in Iran from 1981 to 2005 is considered as the case of this study. The available data is partly used for finding the optimal, or near optimal values of the weighting parameters (1981–1999) and partly for testing the models (2000–2005). For the best results of GA, the average relative errors on testing data were 2.83% and 1.72% for GA–DEMexponential and GA–DEMlinear, respectively. The corresponding values for PSO were 1.40% and 1.36% for PSO–DEMexponential and PSO–DEMlinear, respectively. Oil demand in Iran is forecasted up to year 2030.
This paper presents application of PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) and GA (Genetic Algorithm) techniques to estimate oil demand in Iran, based on socio-economic indicators. The models are developed in two forms (exponential and linear) and applied to forecast oil demand in Iran. PSO-DEM and GA-DEM (PSO and GA demand estimation models) are developed to estimate the future oil demand values based on population, GDP (gross domestic product), import and export data. Oil consumption in Iran from 1981 to 2005 is considered as the case of this study. The available data is partly used for finding the optimal, or near optimal values of the weighting parameters (1981-1999) and partly for testing the models (2000-2005). For the best results of GA, the average relative errors on testing data were 2.83% and 1.72% for GA-DEM sub(exponential) and GA-DEM sub(linear), respectively. The corresponding values for PSO were 1.40% and 1.36% for PSO-DEM sub(exponential) and PSO-DEM sub(linear), respectively. Oil demand in Iran is forecasted up to year 2030.
Author Behrang, M.A.
Assari, M.R.
Ghanbarzadeh, A.
Assareh, E.
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  surname: Assareh
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  email: Ehsanolah.Assareh@gmail.com
  organization: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Young Researchers Club, Islamic Azad University, Dezful Branch, Iran
– sequence: 2
  givenname: M.A.
  surname: Behrang
  fullname: Behrang, M.A.
  organization: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Young Researchers Club, Islamic Azad University, Dezful Branch, Iran
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  givenname: M.R.
  surname: Assari
  fullname: Assari, M.R.
  organization: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Jundi Shapour University, Dezful, Iran
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  givenname: A.
  surname: Ghanbarzadeh
  fullname: Ghanbarzadeh, A.
  organization: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Engineering Faculty, Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, Iran
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Issue 12
Keywords Demand
PSO (particle swarm optimization)
Projection
Oil
GA (genetic algorithm)
Genetic algorithm
Socioeconomic study
Long term
Modeling
Particle swarm optimization
Forecasting
Petroleum
Language English
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Snippet This paper presents application of PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) and GA (Genetic Algorithm) techniques to estimate oil demand in Iran, based on...
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SubjectTerms Applied sciences
Demand
Domestic
Economic data
Energy
Energy economics
Estimates
Exact sciences and technology
Exports
Fossil fuels and derived products
GA (genetic algorithm)
General, economic and professional studies
Genetic algorithms
Marketing
Mathematical models
Methodology. Modelling
Oil
Optimization
Projection
PSO (particle swarm optimization)
Title Application of PSO (particle swarm optimization) and GA (genetic algorithm) techniques on demand estimation of oil in Iran
URI https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2010.07.043
https://search.proquest.com/docview/855719593
Volume 35
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