How to understand species' niches and range dynamics: a demographic research agenda for biogeography

Range dynamics causes mismatches between a species' geographical distribution and the set of suitable environments in which population growth is positive (the Hutchinsonian niche). This is because source—sink population dynamics cause species to occupy unsuitable environments, and because envir...

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Published in	Journal of biogeography Vol. 39; no. 12; pp. 2146 - 2162
Main Authors	Schurr, Frank M., Pagel, Jörn, Cabral, Juliano Sarmento, Groeneveld, Jürgen, Bykova, Olga, O'Hara, Robert B., Hartig, Florian, Kissling, W. Daniel, Linder, H. Peter, Midgley, Guy F., Schröder, Boris, Singer, Alexander, Zimmermann, Niklaus E.
Format	Journal Article
Language	English
Published	Oxford, UK Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.12.2012 Blackwell Publishing Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
Subjects	Biodiversity monitoring Biogeography climate change Data collection Demography Dynamic range ecological forecasts Ecological genetics Ecological modeling ecological niche modelling Ecological niches ecological theory Environmental changes Geographical distribution geographical range shifts global environmental change mechanistic models migration Modeling Niches Population dynamics Population ecology Population growth process-based statistics Species Species extinction Statistical models Studies
Online Access	Get full text
ISSN	0305-0270 1365-2699
DOI	10.1111/j.1365-2699.2012.02737.x

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Abstract	Range dynamics causes mismatches between a species' geographical distribution and the set of suitable environments in which population growth is positive (the Hutchinsonian niche). This is because source—sink population dynamics cause species to occupy unsuitable environments, and because environmental change creates non-equilibrium situations in which species may be absent from suitable environments (due to migration limitation) or present in unsuitable environments that were previously suitable (due to time-delayed extinction). Because correlative species distribution models do not account for these processes, they are likely to produce biased niche estimates and biased forecasts of future range dynamics. Recently developed dynamic range models (DRMs) overcome this problem: they statistically estimate both range dynamics and the underlying environmental response of demographic rates from species distribution data. This process-based statistical approach qualitatively advances biogeographical analyses. Yet, the application of DRMs to a broad range of species and study systems requires substantial research efforts in statistical modelling, empirical data collection and ecological theory. Here we review current and potential contributions of these fields to a demographic understanding of niches and range dynamics. Our review serves to formulate a demographic research agenda that entails: (1) advances in incorporating process-based models of demographic responses and range dynamics into a statistical framework, (2) systematic collection of data on temporal changes in distribution and abundance and on the response of demographic rates to environmental variation, and (3) improved theoretical understanding of the scaling of demographic rates and the dynamics of spatially coupled populations. This demographic research agenda is challenging but necessary for improved comprehension and quantification of niches and range dynamics. It also forms the basis for understanding how niches and range dynamics are shaped by evolutionary dynamics and biotic interactions. Ultimately, the demographic research agenda should lead to deeper integration of biogeography with empirical and theoretical ecology.
AbstractList	Range dynamics causes mismatches between a species' geographical distribution and the set of suitable environments in which population growth is positive (the Hutchinsonian niche). This is because source—sink population dynamics cause species to occupy unsuitable environments, and because environmental change creates non-equilibrium situations in which species may be absent from suitable environments (due to migration limitation) or present in unsuitable environments that were previously suitable (due to time-delayed extinction). Because correlative species distribution models do not account for these processes, they are likely to produce biased niche estimates and biased forecasts of future range dynamics. Recently developed dynamic range models (DRMs) overcome this problem: they statistically estimate both range dynamics and the underlying environmental response of demographic rates from species distribution data. This process-based statistical approach qualitatively advances biogeographical analyses. Yet, the application of DRMs to a broad range of species and study systems requires substantial research efforts in statistical modelling, empirical data collection and ecological theory. Here we review current and potential contributions of these fields to a demographic understanding of niches and range dynamics. Our review serves to formulate a demographic research agenda that entails: (1) advances in incorporating process-based models of demographic responses and range dynamics into a statistical framework, (2) systematic collection of data on temporal changes in distribution and abundance and on the response of demographic rates to environmental variation, and (3) improved theoretical understanding of the scaling of demographic rates and the dynamics of spatially coupled populations. This demographic research agenda is challenging but necessary for improved comprehension and quantification of niches and range dynamics. It also forms the basis for understanding how niches and range dynamics are shaped by evolutionary dynamics and biotic interactions. Ultimately, the demographic research agenda should lead to deeper integration of biogeography with empirical and theoretical ecology. Range dynamics causes mismatches between a species' geographical distribution and the set of suitable environments in which population growth is positive (the Hutchinsonian niche). This is because source-sink population dynamics cause species to occupy unsuitable environments, and because environmental change creates non-equilibrium situations in which species may be absent from suitable environments (due to migration limitation) or present in unsuitable environments that were previously suitable (due to time-delayed extinction). Because correlative species distribution models do not account for these processes, they are likely to produce biased niche estimates and biased forecasts of future range dynamics. Recently developed dynamic range models (DRMs) overcome this problem: they statistically estimate both range dynamics and the underlying environmental response of demographic rates from species distribution data. This process-based statistical approach qualitatively advances biogeographical analyses. Yet, the application of DRMs to a broad range of species and study systems requires substantial research efforts in statistical modelling, empirical data collection and ecological theory. Here we review current and potential contributions of these fields to a demographic understanding of niches and range dynamics. Our review serves to formulate a demographic research agenda that entails: (1) advances in incorporating process-based models of demographic responses and range dynamics into a statistical framework, (2) systematic collection of data on temporal changes in distribution and abundance and on the response of demographic rates to environmental variation, and (3) improved theoretical understanding of the scaling of demographic rates and the dynamics of spatially coupled populations. This demographic research agenda is challenging but necessary for improved comprehension and quantification of niches and range dynamics. It also forms the basis for understanding how niches and range dynamics are shaped by evolutionary dynamics and biotic interactions. Ultimately, the demographic research agenda should lead to deeper integration of biogeography with empirical and theoretical ecology. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
Author	Midgley, Guy F. Hartig, Florian Linder, H. Peter Singer, Alexander Pagel, Jörn Zimmermann, Niklaus E. Groeneveld, Jürgen Kissling, W. Daniel Cabral, Juliano Sarmento O'Hara, Robert B. Bykova, Olga Schröder, Boris Schurr, Frank M.
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Frank M. surname: Schurr fullname: Schurr, Frank M. email: frank.schurr@univ-montp2.fr organization: Plant Ecology and Conservation Biology, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 2 givenname: Jörn surname: Pagel fullname: Pagel, Jörn organization: Plant Ecology and Conservation Biology, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 3 givenname: Juliano Sarmento surname: Cabral fullname: Cabral, Juliano Sarmento organization: Biodiversity, Macroecology and Conservation Biogeography Group, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany – sequence: 4 givenname: Jürgen surname: Groeneveld fullname: Groeneveld, Jürgen organization: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Ecological Modelling, Leipzig, Germany – sequence: 5 givenname: Olga surname: Bykova fullname: Bykova, Olga organization: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada – sequence: 6 givenname: Robert B. surname: O'Hara fullname: O'Hara, Robert B. organization: Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany – sequence: 7 givenname: Florian surname: Hartig fullname: Hartig, Florian organization: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Ecological Modelling, Leipzig, Germany – sequence: 8 givenname: W. Daniel surname: Kissling fullname: Kissling, W. Daniel organization: Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity Group, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark – sequence: 9 givenname: H. Peter surname: Linder fullname: Linder, H. Peter organization: Institute of Systematic Botany, Zürich, Switzerland – sequence: 10 givenname: Guy F. surname: Midgley fullname: Midgley, Guy F. organization: Climate Change Research Group, South African National Biodiversity Institute, Claremont, Cape Town, South Africa – sequence: 11 givenname: Boris surname: Schröder fullname: Schröder, Boris organization: Environmental Modelling, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany – sequence: 12 givenname: Alexander surname: Singer fullname: Singer, Alexander organization: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Ecological Modelling, Leipzig, Germany – sequence: 13 givenname: Niklaus E. surname: Zimmermann fullname: Zimmermann, Niklaus E. organization: Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
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Snippet	Range dynamics causes mismatches between a species' geographical distribution and the set of suitable environments in which population growth is positive (the... Range dynamics causes mismatches between a species’ geographical distribution and the set of suitable environments in which population growth is positive (the...
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SubjectTerms	Biodiversity monitoring Biogeography climate change Data collection Demography Dynamic range ecological forecasts Ecological genetics Ecological modeling ecological niche modelling Ecological niches ecological theory Environmental changes Geographical distribution geographical range shifts global environmental change mechanistic models migration Modeling Niches Population dynamics Population ecology Population growth process-based statistics Species Species extinction Statistical models Studies
Title	How to understand species' niches and range dynamics: a demographic research agenda for biogeography
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