Calibration of deterministic NWP forecasts and its impact on verification

• Published in: International journal of forecasting Vol. 39; no. 2; pp. 981 - 991
• Main Authors: Mayer, Martin János, Yang, Dazhi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.04.2023
• Subjects: Calibration; Correlation coefficient; Numerical weather prediction; Solar forecasting; Verification; Correlation coefficient; Verification; Solar forecasting; Calibration; Numerical weather prediction
• ISSN: 0169-2070; 1872-8200
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.03.008

Deterministic forecasts (as opposed to ensemble or probabilistic forecasts) issued by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models require post-processing. Such corrective procedure can be viewed as a form of calibration. It is well known that, based on different objective functions, e.g., minimizing t...