Two solar proton fluence models based on ground level enhancement observations
Solar energetic particles (SEPs) constitute an important component of the radiation environment in interplanetary space. Accurate modeling of SEP events is crucial for the mitigation of radiation hazards in spacecraft design. In this study we present two new statistical models of high energy solar p...
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Published in | Journal of space weather and space climate Vol. 8; p. A04 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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les Ulis
EDP Sciences
2018
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Abstract | Solar energetic particles (SEPs) constitute an important component of the radiation environment in interplanetary space. Accurate modeling of SEP events is crucial for the mitigation of radiation hazards in spacecraft design. In this study we present two new statistical models of high energy solar proton fluences based on ground level enhancement (GLE) observations during solar cycles 19–24. As the basis of our modeling, we utilize a four parameter double power law function (known as the Band function) fits to integral GLE fluence spectra in rigidity. In the first model, the integral and differential fluences for protons with energies between 10 MeV and 1 GeV are calculated using the fits, and the distributions of the fluences at certain energies are modeled with an exponentially cut-off power law function. In the second model, we use a more advanced methodology: by investigating the distributions and relationships of the spectral fit parameters we find that they can be modeled as two independent and two dependent variables. Therefore, instead of modeling the fluences separately at different energies, we can model the shape of the fluence spectrum. We present examples of modeling results and show that the two methodologies agree well except for a short mission duration (1 year) at low confidence level. We also show that there is a reasonable agreement between our models and three well-known solar proton models (JPL, ESP and SEPEM), despite the differences in both the modeling methodologies and the data used to construct the models. |
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AbstractList | Solar energetic particles (SEPs) constitute an important component of the radiation environment in interplanetary space. Accurate modeling of SEP events is crucial for the mitigation of radiation hazards in spacecraft design. In this study we present two new statistical models of high energy solar proton fluences based on ground level enhancement (GLE) observations during solar cycles 19–24. As the basis of our modeling, we utilize a four parameter double power law function (known as the Band function) fits to integral GLE fluence spectra in rigidity. In the first model, the integral and differential fluences for protons with energies between 10 MeV and 1 GeV are calculated using the fits, and the distributions of the fluences at certain energies are modeled with an exponentially cut-off power law function. In the second model, we use a more advanced methodology: by investigating the distributions and relationships of the spectral fit parameters we find that they can be modeled as two independent and two dependent variables. Therefore, instead of modeling the fluences separately at different energies, we can model the shape of the fluence spectrum. We present examples of modeling results and show that the two methodologies agree well except for a short mission duration (1 year) at low confidence level. We also show that there is a reasonable agreement between our models and three well-known solar proton models (JPL, ESP and SEPEM), despite the differences in both the modeling methodologies and the data used to construct the models. |
Author | Ganse, Urs Tylka, Allan J. Raukunen, Osku Dierckxsens, Mark Heynderickx, Daniel Siipola, Robert Jiggens, Piers Dietrich, William F. Crosby, Norma Vainio, Rami |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Osku orcidid: 0000-0001-8346-5281 surname: Raukunen fullname: Raukunen, Osku – sequence: 2 givenname: Rami orcidid: 0000-0002-3298-2067 surname: Vainio fullname: Vainio, Rami – sequence: 3 givenname: Allan J. surname: Tylka fullname: Tylka, Allan J. – sequence: 4 givenname: William F. surname: Dietrich fullname: Dietrich, William F. – sequence: 5 givenname: Piers surname: Jiggens fullname: Jiggens, Piers – sequence: 6 givenname: Daniel surname: Heynderickx fullname: Heynderickx, Daniel – sequence: 7 givenname: Mark surname: Dierckxsens fullname: Dierckxsens, Mark – sequence: 8 givenname: Norma surname: Crosby fullname: Crosby, Norma – sequence: 9 givenname: Urs surname: Ganse fullname: Ganse, Urs – sequence: 10 givenname: Robert surname: Siipola fullname: Siipola, Robert |
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Snippet | Solar energetic particles (SEPs) constitute an important component of the radiation environment in interplanetary space. Accurate modeling of SEP events is... |
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SubjectTerms | Confidence intervals Cosmic rays Dependent variables energetic particle Energetic particles Energy Fluence Ground level ground level enhancement (GLE) Hazard mitigation Independent variables Integrals Interplanetary space Mitigation modelling Parameters Power law Radiation Radiation hazards Rigidity Solar cycle Solar energetic particles Solar energy Solar protons space weather Spacecraft Spacecraft design Statistical analysis Statistical models Sun |
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Title | Two solar proton fluence models based on ground level enhancement observations |
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