Temperature effects on productivity and factor reallocation: Evidence from a half million chinese manufacturing plants
This paper uses detailed production data from a half million Chinese manufacturing plants over 1998–2007 to estimate the effects of temperature on firm-level total factor productivity (TFP), factor inputs, and output. We detect an inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and TFP and show t...
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| Published in | Journal of environmental economics and management Vol. 88; pp. 1 - 17 |
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| Main Authors | , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Elsevier Inc
01.03.2018
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | This paper uses detailed production data from a half million Chinese manufacturing plants over 1998–2007 to estimate the effects of temperature on firm-level total factor productivity (TFP), factor inputs, and output. We detect an inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and TFP and show that it primarily drives the temperature-output effect. Both labor- and capital- intensive firms exhibit sensitivity to high temperatures. By mid 21st century, if no additional adaptation were to occur, we project that climate change will reduce Chinese manufacturing output annually by 12%, equivalent to a loss of $39.5 billion in 2007 dollars. This implies substantial local and global economic consequences as the Chinese manufacturing sector produces 32% of national GDP and supplies 12% of global exports. |
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| AbstractList | This paper uses detailed production data from a half million Chinese manufacturing plants over 1998–2007 to estimate the effects of temperature on firm-level total factor productivity (TFP), factor inputs, and output. We detect an inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and TFP and show that it primarily drives the temperature-output effect. Both labor- and capital- intensive firms exhibit sensitivity to high temperatures. By mid 21st century, if no additional adaptation were to occur, we project that climate change will reduce Chinese manufacturing output annually by 12%, equivalent to a loss of $39.5 billion in 2007 dollars. This implies substantial local and global economic consequences as the Chinese manufacturing sector produces 32% of national GDP and supplies 12% of global exports. |
| Author | Zhang, Peng Meng, Kyle Zhang, Junjie Deschenes, Olivier |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Peng surname: Zhang fullname: Zhang, Peng email: peng.af.zhang@polyu.edu.hk organization: School of Accounting and Finance, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong – sequence: 2 givenname: Olivier surname: Deschenes fullname: Deschenes, Olivier organization: Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara, United States – sequence: 3 givenname: Kyle surname: Meng fullname: Meng, Kyle organization: Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara, United States – sequence: 4 givenname: Junjie surname: Zhang fullname: Zhang, Junjie organization: Environmental Research Center, Duke Kunshan University, China |
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