Bayesian Networks-based Shield TBM Risk Management System: Methodology Development and Application

• Published in: KSCE journal of civil engineering Vol. 23; no. 1; pp. 452 - 465
• Main Authors: Chung, Heeyoung, Lee, In-Mo, Jung, Jee-Hee, Park, Jeongjun
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Seoul Korean Society of Civil Engineers 01.01.2019; Springer Nature B.V; 대한토목학회
• Subjects: Architectural engineering; Bayesian analysis; Bayesian theory; Boring machines; Civil Engineering; Construction; Drilling & boring machinery; Earth; Earth pressure; Engineering; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Industrial Pollution Prevention; Methodology; Methods; Probability; Probability theory; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Risk factors; Risk management; Slurries; Supervision; Tunnel construction; Tunnel Engineering; Tunneling; Tunneling shields; Tunnels; Variables; 토목공학; Shield Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM); degree of risk; risk analysis model; Bayesian networks; risk management methodology
• ISSN: 1226-7988; 1976-3808
• DOI: 10.1007/s12205-018-0912-y

A risk management methodology that can be applicable to a shield Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) tunneling project is proposed in this paper. A Shield TBM Risk Analysis Model (STRAM) is developed based on Bayesian networks. STRAM considers geological risk factors and TBM types, such as Earth Pressure Balance (EPB) open mode, EPB closed mode, and slurry TBMs, and systematically identifies the potential risk events that may occur during tunnel construction. It can also quantitatively evaluate the degree of risk for the identified potential risk events by estimating the cost of countermeasures against event occurrence. The proposed methodology based on STRAM can minimize the drawbacks of the TBM tunneling method, including difficulty in substituting the machine type once it is selected and excessive delay of the project due to unexpected risk events.