Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China
Mean summer temperature in Eastern China has increased by 0.82 °C since the 1950s and five of the hottest summers have occurred since 2000. This study estimates anthropogenic influence to have caused a greater than 60-fold increase in the likelihood of extreme summer heat and projects that hot summe...
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| Published in | Nature climate change Vol. 4; no. 12; pp. 1082 - 1085 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
London
Nature Publishing Group UK
01.12.2014
Nature Publishing Group |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Mean summer temperature in Eastern China has increased by 0.82 °C since the 1950s and five of the hottest summers have occurred since 2000. This study estimates anthropogenic influence to have caused a greater than 60-fold increase in the likelihood of extreme summer heat and projects that hot summers will continue to increase in frequency.
The summer of 2013 was the hottest on record in Eastern China. Severe extended heatwaves affected the most populous and economically developed part of China and caused substantial economic and societal impacts
1
. The estimated direct economic losses from the accompanying drought alone total 59 billion RMB (ref.
2
). Summer (June–August) mean temperature in the region has increased by 0.82 °C since reliable observations were established in the 1950s, with the five hottest summers all occurring in the twenty-first century. It is challenging to attribute extreme events to causes
3
,
4
,
5
,
6
. Nevertheless, quantifying the causes of such extreme summer heat and projecting its future likelihood is necessary to develop climate adaptation strategies
7
. We estimate that anthropogenic influence has caused a more than 60-fold increase in the likelihood of the extreme warm 2013 summer since the early 1950s, and project that similarly hot summers will become even more frequent in the future, with fully 50% of summers being hotter than the 2013 summer in two decades even under the moderate RCP4.5 emissions scenario. Without adaptation to reduce vulnerability to the effects of extreme heat, this would imply a rapid increase in risks from extreme summer heat to Eastern China. |
|---|---|
| AbstractList | Mean summer temperature in Eastern China has increased by 0.82 °C since the 1950s and five of the hottest summers have occurred since 2000. This study estimates anthropogenic influence to have caused a greater than 60-fold increase in the likelihood of extreme summer heat and projects that hot summers will continue to increase in frequency.
The summer of 2013 was the hottest on record in Eastern China. Severe extended heatwaves affected the most populous and economically developed part of China and caused substantial economic and societal impacts
1
. The estimated direct economic losses from the accompanying drought alone total 59 billion RMB (ref.
2
). Summer (June–August) mean temperature in the region has increased by 0.82 °C since reliable observations were established in the 1950s, with the five hottest summers all occurring in the twenty-first century. It is challenging to attribute extreme events to causes
3
,
4
,
5
,
6
. Nevertheless, quantifying the causes of such extreme summer heat and projecting its future likelihood is necessary to develop climate adaptation strategies
7
. We estimate that anthropogenic influence has caused a more than 60-fold increase in the likelihood of the extreme warm 2013 summer since the early 1950s, and project that similarly hot summers will become even more frequent in the future, with fully 50% of summers being hotter than the 2013 summer in two decades even under the moderate RCP4.5 emissions scenario. Without adaptation to reduce vulnerability to the effects of extreme heat, this would imply a rapid increase in risks from extreme summer heat to Eastern China. The summer of 2013 was the hottest on record in Eastern China. Severe extended heatwaves affected the most populous and economically developed part of China and caused substantial economic and societal impacts. The estimated direct economic losses from the accompanying drought alone total 59 billion RMB (ref. ). Summer (June-August) mean temperature in the region has increased by 0.82 °C since reliable observations were established in the 1950s, with the five hottest summers all occurring in the twenty-first century. It is challenging to attribute extreme events to causes. Nevertheless, quantifying the causes of such extreme summer heat and projecting its future likelihood is necessary to develop climate adaptation strategies. We estimate that anthropogenic influence has caused a more than 60-fold increase in the likelihood of the extreme warm 2013 summer since the early 1950s, and project that similarly hot summers will become even more frequent in the future, with fully 50% of summers being hotter than the 2013 summer in two decades even under the moderate RCP4.5 emissions scenario. Without adaptation to reduce vulnerability to the effects of extreme heat, this would imply a rapid increase in risks from extreme summer heat to Eastern China. The summer of 2013 was the hottest on record in Eastern China. Severe extended heatwaves affected the most populous and economically developed part of China and caused substantial economic and societal impacts. The estimated direct economic losses from the accompanying drought alone total 59 billion RMB (ref. ). Summer (June-August) mean temperature in the region has increased by 0.82 degree C since reliable observations were established in the 1950s, with the five hottest summers all occurring in the twenty-first century. It is challenging to attribute extreme events to causes. Nevertheless, quantifying the causes of such extreme summer heat and projecting its future likelihood is necessary to develop climate adaptation strategies. We estimate that anthropogenic influence has caused a more than 60-fold increase in the likelihood of the extreme warm 2013 summer since the early 1950s, and project that similarly hot summers will become even more frequent in the future, with fully 50% of summers being hotter than the 2013 summer in two decades even under the moderate RCP4.5 emissions scenario. Without adaptation to reduce vulnerability to the effects of extreme heat, this would imply a rapid increase in risks from extreme summer heat to Eastern China. |
| Author | Sun, Ying Hu, Ting Wan, Hui Song, Lianchun Zwiers, Francis W. Yin, Hong Ren, Guoyu Zhang, Xuebin |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Ying surname: Sun fullname: Sun, Ying organization: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration – sequence: 2 givenname: Xuebin surname: Zhang fullname: Zhang, Xuebin email: Xuebin.Zhang@ec.gc.ca organization: Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto – sequence: 3 givenname: Francis W. surname: Zwiers fullname: Zwiers, Francis W. organization: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria – sequence: 4 givenname: Lianchun surname: Song fullname: Song, Lianchun organization: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration – sequence: 5 givenname: Hui surname: Wan fullname: Wan, Hui organization: Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto – sequence: 6 givenname: Ting surname: Hu fullname: Hu, Ting organization: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration – sequence: 7 givenname: Hong surname: Yin fullname: Yin, Hong organization: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration – sequence: 8 givenname: Guoyu surname: Ren fullname: Ren, Guoyu organization: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration |
| BackLink | http://pascal-francis.inist.fr/vibad/index.php?action=getRecordDetail&idt=29017269$$DView record in Pascal Francis |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1007/s003820050291 10.1175/JCLI3851.1 10.1038/35036559 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00393.1 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1 10.1029/2010JD015452 10.1002/grl.50285 10.1007/s003820050186 10.1007/978-94-007-6692-1_12 10.1175/2010JCLI3908.1 10.1038/nature03089 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z 10.1002/2013JC009297 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1 10.1007/s00382-003-0313-9 10.1017/CBO9781139177245.006 10.1029/2010GL046582 10.1073/pnas.0812721106 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1 10.1175/2007JCLI1348.1 10.1029/2011GL050422 10.1007/s11430-009-0123-y |
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| Snippet | Mean summer temperature in Eastern China has increased by 0.82 °C since the 1950s and five of the hottest summers have occurred since 2000. This study... The summer of 2013 was the hottest on record in Eastern China. Severe extended heatwaves affected the most populous and economically developed part of China... |
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| SubjectTerms | 704/106/694/2739 704/106/694/674 Anthropogenic factors Climate adaptation Climate Change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change Drought Earth, ocean, space Economics Environment Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Extreme heat Heat waves letter Meteorology |
| Title | Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China |
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