An expert‐elicited approach to inform proactive risk assessments for chronic wasting disease in white‐tailed deer
One of the most rational and successful ways to mitigate the effects of wildlife disease is to perform proactive management efforts that can either prevent disease prior to first exposure or detect and eradicate disease prior to its establishment. However, estimating the risk of wildlife disease in...
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Published in | Conservation science and practice Vol. 4; no. 6 |
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Main Authors | , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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Chichester, UK
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
01.06.2022
John Wiley & Sons, Inc Wiley |
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Abstract | One of the most rational and successful ways to mitigate the effects of wildlife disease is to perform proactive management efforts that can either prevent disease prior to first exposure or detect and eradicate disease prior to its establishment. However, estimating the risk of wildlife disease in new locations is often challenged by a lack of tractable linkages between known or presumed disease hazards and comprehensive risk of introduction and spread. In this study, we present a low‐cost approach that estimated comprehensive risk of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Michigan, United States, based on the localized knowledge of experts and the use of existing datasets. We controlled for sources of expert bias, avoided group conflict that may challenge qualitative risk assessments, and generated estimates of risk that aligned with known positives and can be used in targeted surveillance and mitigation efforts. We found that 97% of CWD detections fell within high risk counties, with only 3 out of 117 cases (3%) falling in counties at low risk. Furthermore, we found coherence between indirect expert‐elicited risk estimates and direct hazard rankings, suggesting that an indirect approach maximized expert knowledge sharing while controlling for sources of potential bias. Lastly, our approach required limited time commitment from group participants and thus, represented a low‐cost decision‐making approach. Taken together, our study may provide an opportunity to mount proactive wildlife disease management in a way that has often been promoted but rarely accomplished. |
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AbstractList | One of the most rational and successful ways to mitigate the effects of wildlife disease is to perform proactive management efforts that can either prevent disease prior to first exposure or detect and eradicate disease prior to its establishment. However, estimating the risk of wildlife disease in new locations is often challenged by a lack of tractable linkages between known or presumed disease hazards and comprehensive risk of introduction and spread. In this study, we present a low‐cost approach that estimated comprehensive risk of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Michigan, United States, based on the localized knowledge of experts and the use of existing datasets. We controlled for sources of expert bias, avoided group conflict that may challenge qualitative risk assessments, and generated estimates of risk that aligned with known positives and can be used in targeted surveillance and mitigation efforts. We found that 97% of CWD detections fell within high risk counties, with only 3 out of 117 cases (3%) falling in counties at low risk. Furthermore, we found coherence between indirect expert‐elicited risk estimates and direct hazard rankings, suggesting that an indirect approach maximized expert knowledge sharing while controlling for sources of potential bias. Lastly, our approach required limited time commitment from group participants and thus, represented a low‐cost decision‐making approach. Taken together, our study may provide an opportunity to mount proactive wildlife disease management in a way that has often been promoted but rarely accomplished. Abstract One of the most rational and successful ways to mitigate the effects of wildlife disease is to perform proactive management efforts that can either prevent disease prior to first exposure or detect and eradicate disease prior to its establishment. However, estimating the risk of wildlife disease in new locations is often challenged by a lack of tractable linkages between known or presumed disease hazards and comprehensive risk of introduction and spread. In this study, we present a low‐cost approach that estimated comprehensive risk of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Michigan, United States, based on the localized knowledge of experts and the use of existing datasets. We controlled for sources of expert bias, avoided group conflict that may challenge qualitative risk assessments, and generated estimates of risk that aligned with known positives and can be used in targeted surveillance and mitigation efforts. We found that 97% of CWD detections fell within high risk counties, with only 3 out of 117 cases (3%) falling in counties at low risk. Furthermore, we found coherence between indirect expert‐elicited risk estimates and direct hazard rankings, suggesting that an indirect approach maximized expert knowledge sharing while controlling for sources of potential bias. Lastly, our approach required limited time commitment from group participants and thus, represented a low‐cost decision‐making approach. Taken together, our study may provide an opportunity to mount proactive wildlife disease management in a way that has often been promoted but rarely accomplished. |
Author | Cook, Jonathan D. Williams, David M. Porter, William F. Christensen, Sonja A. Robinson, Kelly F. |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Jonathan D. orcidid: 0000-0001-7000-8727 surname: Cook fullname: Cook, Jonathan D. email: jcook@usgs.gov organization: Michigan State University – sequence: 2 givenname: Sonja A. surname: Christensen fullname: Christensen, Sonja A. organization: Michigan State University – sequence: 3 givenname: David M. surname: Williams fullname: Williams, David M. organization: Michigan State University – sequence: 4 givenname: William F. surname: Porter fullname: Porter, William F. organization: Michigan State University – sequence: 5 givenname: Kelly F. surname: Robinson fullname: Robinson, Kelly F. organization: Michigan State University |
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Cites_doi | 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.11.020 10.1002/0470033312 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00524.x 10.2307/2573319 10.3390/pathogens9040311 10.1007/s10393-007-0093-5 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01337.x 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.02.008 10.1038/nature06536 10.1371/journal.pone.0019896 10.3389/fevo.2018.00206 10.1098/rstb.2016.0167 10.1111/tbed.12705 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01477.x 10.1128/mBio.01091-19 10.1186/1297-9716-44-42 10.1007/s10344-019-1260-z 10.3133/ofr20121036 10.1371/journal.pone.0161127 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2007.00499.x 10.1644/1545-1542(2005)86[623:FCIDDO]2.0.CO;2 10.2193/2006-179 10.1186/s12917-016-0804-7 10.1002/fee.1481 10.1017/CBO9780511840609 10.2147/VMRR.S197404 10.1080/15287394.2016.1174005 10.1002/wsb.627 10.1017/CBO9780511809477 10.1080/15287394.2016.1174007 10.1017/CBO9780511611308.010 10.1002/ece3.5405 10.1111/tbed.13938 10.1371/journal.pone.0186512 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01806.x 10.3390/ani9121096 |
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Copyright | 2022 The Authors. published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology. 2022. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. |
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Notes | Funding information Boone and Crockett Quantitative Wildlife Center at MSU; Hal and Jean Glassen Memorial Foundation; Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Grant/Award Number: WLD1708; U.S. Department of the Interior; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Grant/Award Number: MI W‐155‐R |
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Snippet | One of the most rational and successful ways to mitigate the effects of wildlife disease is to perform proactive management efforts that can either prevent... Abstract One of the most rational and successful ways to mitigate the effects of wildlife disease is to perform proactive management efforts that can either... |
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SubjectTerms | Bias Chronic wasting disease Decision making Deer Disease transmission Ecology emerging infectious disease Epidemics Estimates expert‐elicitation Health risks Hunting Mitigation Odocoileus virginianus Pathogens Risk assessment Surveillance Transmissible spongiform encephalopathy white‐tailed deer Wildlife Wildlife conservation Wildlife management |
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Title | An expert‐elicited approach to inform proactive risk assessments for chronic wasting disease in white‐tailed deer |
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