Exploring optimal control strategies in seasonally varying flu-like epidemics
The impact of optimal control strategies in the context of seasonally varying infectious disease transmission remains a wide open research area. We investigate optimal control strategies for flu-like epidemics using an SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) type epidemic model where the transmission...
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| Published in | Journal of theoretical biology Vol. 412; pp. 36 - 47 |
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| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
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Elsevier Ltd
07.01.2017
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| Abstract | The impact of optimal control strategies in the context of seasonally varying infectious disease transmission remains a wide open research area. We investigate optimal control strategies for flu-like epidemics using an SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) type epidemic model where the transmission rate varies seasonally Specifically, we explore optimal control strategies using time-dependent treatment and vaccination as control functions alone or in combination. Optimal strategies and associated epidemic outcomes are contrasted for epidemics with constant and seasonal transmission rates. Our results show that the epidemic outcomes assessed in terms of the timing and size of seasonal epidemics subject to optimal control strategies are highly sensitive to various parameters including R0, the timing of the introduction of the initial number of infectious individuals into the population, the time at which interventions start, and the strength of the seasonal forcing that modulates the time-dependent transmission rate. Findings highlight the difficult challenge in predicting short-term epidemic impact in the context of seasonally varying infectious disease transmission with some interventions scenarios exhibiting larger epidemic size compared to scenarios without control interventions.
•Epidemic dynamics with seasonal transmission rates are analyzed.•Optimal control interventions are investigated under seasonal transmission rates.•Epidemic outcomes are found to be highly sensitive to changes in various parameters.•Epidemic forecasting with seasonal transmission rates faces many challenges. |
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| AbstractList | The impact of optimal control strategies in the context of seasonally varying infectious disease transmission remains a wide open research area. We investigate optimal control strategies for flu-like epidemics using an SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) type epidemic model where the transmission rate varies seasonally Specifically, we explore optimal control strategies using time-dependent treatment and vaccination as control functions alone or in combination. Optimal strategies and associated epidemic outcomes are contrasted for epidemics with constant and seasonal transmission rates. Our results show that the epidemic outcomes assessed in terms of the timing and size of seasonal epidemics subject to optimal control strategies are highly sensitive to various parameters including R
, the timing of the introduction of the initial number of infectious individuals into the population, the time at which interventions start, and the strength of the seasonal forcing that modulates the time-dependent transmission rate. Findings highlight the difficult challenge in predicting short-term epidemic impact in the context of seasonally varying infectious disease transmission with some interventions scenarios exhibiting larger epidemic size compared to scenarios without control interventions. The impact of optimal control strategies in the context of seasonally varying infectious disease transmission remains a wide open research area. We investigate optimal control strategies for flu-like epidemics using an SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) type epidemic model where the transmission rate varies seasonally Specifically, we explore optimal control strategies using time-dependent treatment and vaccination as control functions alone or in combination. Optimal strategies and associated epidemic outcomes are contrasted for epidemics with constant and seasonal transmission rates. Our results show that the epidemic outcomes assessed in terms of the timing and size of seasonal epidemics subject to optimal control strategies are highly sensitive to various parameters including R0, the timing of the introduction of the initial number of infectious individuals into the population, the time at which interventions start, and the strength of the seasonal forcing that modulates the time-dependent transmission rate. Findings highlight the difficult challenge in predicting short-term epidemic impact in the context of seasonally varying infectious disease transmission with some interventions scenarios exhibiting larger epidemic size compared to scenarios without control interventions.The impact of optimal control strategies in the context of seasonally varying infectious disease transmission remains a wide open research area. We investigate optimal control strategies for flu-like epidemics using an SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) type epidemic model where the transmission rate varies seasonally Specifically, we explore optimal control strategies using time-dependent treatment and vaccination as control functions alone or in combination. Optimal strategies and associated epidemic outcomes are contrasted for epidemics with constant and seasonal transmission rates. Our results show that the epidemic outcomes assessed in terms of the timing and size of seasonal epidemics subject to optimal control strategies are highly sensitive to various parameters including R0, the timing of the introduction of the initial number of infectious individuals into the population, the time at which interventions start, and the strength of the seasonal forcing that modulates the time-dependent transmission rate. Findings highlight the difficult challenge in predicting short-term epidemic impact in the context of seasonally varying infectious disease transmission with some interventions scenarios exhibiting larger epidemic size compared to scenarios without control interventions. The impact of optimal control strategies in the context of seasonally varying infectious disease transmission remains a wide open research area. We investigate optimal control strategies for flu-like epidemics using an SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) type epidemic model where the transmission rate varies seasonally Specifically, we explore optimal control strategies using time-dependent treatment and vaccination as control functions alone or in combination. Optimal strategies and associated epidemic outcomes are contrasted for epidemics with constant and seasonal transmission rates. Our results show that the epidemic outcomes assessed in terms of the timing and size of seasonal epidemics subject to optimal control strategies are highly sensitive to various parameters including R0, the timing of the introduction of the initial number of infectious individuals into the population, the time at which interventions start, and the strength of the seasonal forcing that modulates the time-dependent transmission rate. Findings highlight the difficult challenge in predicting short-term epidemic impact in the context of seasonally varying infectious disease transmission with some interventions scenarios exhibiting larger epidemic size compared to scenarios without control interventions. •Epidemic dynamics with seasonal transmission rates are analyzed.•Optimal control interventions are investigated under seasonal transmission rates.•Epidemic outcomes are found to be highly sensitive to changes in various parameters.•Epidemic forecasting with seasonal transmission rates faces many challenges. |
| Author | Chowell, Gerardo Lee, Sunmi |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Sunmi surname: Lee fullname: Lee, Sunmi email: sunmilee@khu.ac.kr organization: Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Republic of Korea – sequence: 2 givenname: Gerardo surname: Chowell fullname: Chowell, Gerardo organization: School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA, USA |
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| Keywords | Optimal control theory Influenza transmission dynamics Seasonally varying transmission rate Vaccination and treatment strategies |
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| Snippet | The impact of optimal control strategies in the context of seasonally varying infectious disease transmission remains a wide open research area. We investigate... |
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| SubjectTerms | Humans Influenza transmission dynamics Influenza, Human - epidemiology Influenza, Human - transmission Models, Biological Optimal control theory Seasonally varying transmission rate Seasons Vaccination and treatment strategies |
| Title | Exploring optimal control strategies in seasonally varying flu-like epidemics |
| URI | https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.09.023 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27693366 https://www.proquest.com/docview/1835354063 |
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