Local and landscape management of an expanding range margin under climate change

1. There is a pressing need to understand how to facilitate species' range shifts under climate change. However, few empirical studies are available to inform decision-making, particularly at fine spatial and temporal resolutions. 2. We present a case study of a thermally constrained habitat sp...

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Published inThe Journal of applied ecology Vol. 49; no. 3; pp. 552 - 561
Main Authors Lawson, Callum R., Bennie, Jonathan J., Thomas, Chris D., Hodgson, Jenny A., Wilson, Robert J.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Oxford, UK Blackwell Publishing 01.06.2012
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Blackwell
Subjects
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN0021-8901
1365-2664
DOI10.1111/j.1365-2664.2011.02098.x

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Abstract 1. There is a pressing need to understand how to facilitate species' range shifts under climate change. However, few empirical studies are available to inform decision-making, particularly at fine spatial and temporal resolutions. 2. We present a case study of a thermally constrained habitat specialist, the silver-spotted skipper butterfly Hesperia comma, at its expanding range margin in south-eastern Britain. Using data from 724 habitat patches over a 9-year interval (2000—2009), we examined local and landscape determinants of colonization, survival and population density. We then predicted probabilities of colonization and survival for habitat patches under the observed 1982 and 2009 distributions to investigate how the factors limiting range expansions change through space and time. 3. Between 2000 and 2009, Hesperia comma continued to expand its range in Britain, but the 67 recorded colonization events were offset by 48 local extinctions. Extinctions were strongly linked to climate, occurring predominantly in cooler regions and on shaded north-facing slopes. 4. Population density and probability of survival were closely related to conditions within a site, whereas probability of colonization was largely determined by functional connectivity. Survival probability was also influenced by connectivity, suggesting that immigration helped to support extinction-prone populations (a 'rescue effect'). 5. Patch occupancy beyond the range margin was primarily constrained by colonization, but close to the expanding front, population survival became the key limiting factor. This pattern was conserved during range expansion, altering management priorities at individual sites. 6. Synthesis and applications. Previous studies on facilitating range shifts have stressed the need to increase landscape-scale connectivity to remove constraints on colonization, and our data substantiate this advice. However, we show that enhancing population survival can also help to facilitate range expansions, because populations at leading range edges face high extinction risk. Population survival can be improved directly through local management actions, such as enlarging patch size and increasing habitat quality, or indirectly by improving connectivity. Thus, local management can secure vulnerable populations at the range edge and provide larger and more stable migrant sources for future expansion and deserves consideration when facilitating range shifts under climate change.
AbstractList Summary 1. There is a pressing need to understand how to facilitate species’ range shifts under climate change. However, few empirical studies are available to inform decision‐making, particularly at fine spatial and temporal resolutions. 2. We present a case study of a thermally constrained habitat specialist, the silver‐spotted skipper butterfly Hesperia comma, at its expanding range margin in south‐eastern Britain. Using data from 724 habitat patches over a 9‐year interval (2000–2009), we examined local and landscape determinants of colonization, survival and population density. We then predicted probabilities of colonization and survival for habitat patches under the observed 1982 and 2009 distributions to investigate how the factors limiting range expansions change through space and time. 3. Between 2000 and 2009, Hesperia comma continued to expand its range in Britain, but the 67 recorded colonization events were offset by 48 local extinctions. Extinctions were strongly linked to climate, occurring predominantly in cooler regions and on shaded north‐facing slopes. 4. Population density and probability of survival were closely related to conditions within a site, whereas probability of colonization was largely determined by functional connectivity. Survival probability was also influenced by connectivity, suggesting that immigration helped to support extinction‐prone populations (a ‘rescue effect’). 5. Patch occupancy beyond the range margin was primarily constrained by colonization, but close to the expanding front, population survival became the key limiting factor. This pattern was conserved during range expansion, altering management priorities at individual sites. 6. Synthesis and applications. Previous studies on facilitating range shifts have stressed the need to increase landscape‐scale connectivity to remove constraints on colonization, and our data substantiate this advice. However, we show that enhancing population survival can also help to facilitate range expansions, because populations at leading range edges face high extinction risk. Population survival can be improved directly through local management actions, such as enlarging patch size and increasing habitat quality, or indirectly by improving connectivity. Thus, local management can secure vulnerable populations at the range edge and provide larger and more stable migrant sources for future expansion and deserves consideration when facilitating range shifts under climate change. Podcast; Previous studies on facilitating range shifts have stressed the need to increase landscape‐scale connectivity to remove constraints on colonization, and our data substantiate this advice. However, we show that enhancing population survival can also help to facilitate range expansions, because populations at leading range edges face high extinction risk. Population survival can be improved directly through local management actions, such as enlarging patch size and increasing habitat quality, or indirectly by improving connectivity. Thus, local management can secure vulnerable populations at the range edge and provide larger and more stable migrant sources for future expansion and deserves consideration when facilitating range shifts under climate change.
1.€,There is a pressing need to understand how to facilitate species' range shifts under climate change. However, few empirical studies are available to inform decision-making, particularly at fine spatial and temporal resolutions. 2.€,We present a case study of a thermally constrained habitat specialist, the silver-spotted skipper butterfly Hesperia comma, at its expanding range margin in south-eastern Britain. Using data from 724 habitat patches over a 9-year interval (2000-2009), we examined local and landscape determinants of colonization, survival and population density. We then predicted probabilities of colonization and survival for habitat patches under the observed 1982 and 2009 distributions to investigate how the factors limiting range expansions change through space and time. 3.€,Between 2000 and 2009, Hesperia comma continued to expand its range in Britain, but the 67 recorded colonization events were offset by 48 local extinctions. Extinctions were strongly linked to climate, occurring predominantly in cooler regions and on shaded north-facing slopes. 4.€,Population density and probability of survival were closely related to conditions within a site, whereas probability of colonization was largely determined by functional connectivity. Survival probability was also influenced by connectivity, suggesting that immigration helped to support extinction-prone populations (a 'rescue effect'). 5.€,Patch occupancy beyond the range margin was primarily constrained by colonization, but close to the expanding front, population survival became the key limiting factor. This pattern was conserved during range expansion, altering management priorities at individual sites. 6.€,Synthesis and applications.€fPrevious studies on facilitating range shifts have stressed the need to increase landscape-scale connectivity to remove constraints on colonization, and our data substantiate this advice. However, we show that enhancing population survival can also help to facilitate range expansions, because populations at leading range edges face high extinction risk. Population survival can be improved directly through local management actions, such as enlarging patch size and increasing habitat quality, or indirectly by improving connectivity. Thus, local management can secure vulnerable populations at the range edge and provide larger and more stable migrant sources for future expansion and deserves consideration when facilitating range shifts under climate change.
There is a pressing need to understand how to facilitate species' range shifts under climate change. However, few empirical studies are available to inform decision-making, particularly at fine spatial and temporal resolutions. We present a case study of a thermally constrained habitat specialist, the silver-spotted skipper butterfly Hesperia comma, at its expanding range margin in south-eastern Britain. Using data from 724 habitat patches over a 9-year interval (2000-2009), we examined local and landscape determinants of colonization, survival and population density. We then predicted probabilities of colonization and survival for habitat patches under the observed 1982 and 2009 distributions to investigate how the factors limiting range expansions change through space and time. Between 2000 and 2009, Hesperia comma continued to expand its range in Britain, but the 67 recorded colonization events were offset by 48 local extinctions. Extinctions were strongly linked to climate, occurring predominantly in cooler regions and on shaded north-facing slopes. Population density and probability of survival were closely related to conditions within a site, whereas probability of colonization was largely determined by functional connectivity. Survival probability was also influenced by connectivity, suggesting that immigration helped to support extinction-prone populations (a 'rescue effect'). Patch occupancy beyond the range margin was primarily constrained by colonization, but close to the expanding front, population survival became the key limiting factor. This pattern was conserved during range expansion, altering management priorities at individual sites. Previous studies on facilitating range shifts have stressed the need to increase landscape-scale connectivity to remove constraints on colonization, and our data substantiate this advice. However, we show that enhancing population survival can also help to facilitate range expansions, because populations at leading range edges face high extinction risk. Population survival can be improved directly through local management actions, such as enlarging patch size and increasing habitat quality, or indirectly by improving connectivity. Thus, local management can secure vulnerable populations at the range edge and provide larger and more stable migrant sources for future expansion and deserves consideration when facilitating range shifts under climate change.
1. There is a pressing need to understand how to facilitate species' range shifts under climate change. However, few empirical studies are available to inform decision-making, particularly at fine spatial and temporal resolutions. 2. We present a case study of a thermally constrained habitat specialist, the silver-spotted skipper butterfly Hesperia comma, at its expanding range margin in south-eastern Britain. Using data from 724 habitat patches over a 9-year interval (2000—2009), we examined local and landscape determinants of colonization, survival and population density. We then predicted probabilities of colonization and survival for habitat patches under the observed 1982 and 2009 distributions to investigate how the factors limiting range expansions change through space and time. 3. Between 2000 and 2009, Hesperia comma continued to expand its range in Britain, but the 67 recorded colonization events were offset by 48 local extinctions. Extinctions were strongly linked to climate, occurring predominantly in cooler regions and on shaded north-facing slopes. 4. Population density and probability of survival were closely related to conditions within a site, whereas probability of colonization was largely determined by functional connectivity. Survival probability was also influenced by connectivity, suggesting that immigration helped to support extinction-prone populations (a 'rescue effect'). 5. Patch occupancy beyond the range margin was primarily constrained by colonization, but close to the expanding front, population survival became the key limiting factor. This pattern was conserved during range expansion, altering management priorities at individual sites. 6. Synthesis and applications. Previous studies on facilitating range shifts have stressed the need to increase landscape-scale connectivity to remove constraints on colonization, and our data substantiate this advice. However, we show that enhancing population survival can also help to facilitate range expansions, because populations at leading range edges face high extinction risk. Population survival can be improved directly through local management actions, such as enlarging patch size and increasing habitat quality, or indirectly by improving connectivity. Thus, local management can secure vulnerable populations at the range edge and provide larger and more stable migrant sources for future expansion and deserves consideration when facilitating range shifts under climate change.
1. There is a pressing need to understand how to facilitate species’ range shifts under climate change. However, few empirical studies are available to inform decision‐making, particularly at fine spatial and temporal resolutions. 2. We present a case study of a thermally constrained habitat specialist, the silver‐spotted skipper butterfly Hesperia comma , at its expanding range margin in south‐eastern Britain. Using data from 724 habitat patches over a 9‐year interval (2000–2009), we examined local and landscape determinants of colonization, survival and population density. We then predicted probabilities of colonization and survival for habitat patches under the observed 1982 and 2009 distributions to investigate how the factors limiting range expansions change through space and time. 3. Between 2000 and 2009, Hesperia comma continued to expand its range in Britain, but the 67 recorded colonization events were offset by 48 local extinctions. Extinctions were strongly linked to climate, occurring predominantly in cooler regions and on shaded north‐facing slopes. 4. Population density and probability of survival were closely related to conditions within a site, whereas probability of colonization was largely determined by functional connectivity. Survival probability was also influenced by connectivity, suggesting that immigration helped to support extinction‐prone populations (a ‘rescue effect’). 5. Patch occupancy beyond the range margin was primarily constrained by colonization, but close to the expanding front, population survival became the key limiting factor. This pattern was conserved during range expansion, altering management priorities at individual sites. 6. Synthesis and applications . Previous studies on facilitating range shifts have stressed the need to increase landscape‐scale connectivity to remove constraints on colonization, and our data substantiate this advice. However, we show that enhancing population survival can also help to facilitate range expansions, because populations at leading range edges face high extinction risk. Population survival can be improved directly through local management actions, such as enlarging patch size and increasing habitat quality, or indirectly by improving connectivity. Thus, local management can secure vulnerable populations at the range edge and provide larger and more stable migrant sources for future expansion and deserves consideration when facilitating range shifts under climate change. Podcast ; Previous studies on facilitating range shifts have stressed the need to increase landscape‐scale connectivity to remove constraints on colonization, and our data substantiate this advice. However, we show that enhancing population survival can also help to facilitate range expansions, because populations at leading range edges face high extinction risk. Population survival can be improved directly through local management actions, such as enlarging patch size and increasing habitat quality, or indirectly by improving connectivity. Thus, local management can secure vulnerable populations at the range edge and provide larger and more stable migrant sources for future expansion and deserves consideration when facilitating range shifts under climate change.
Author Bennie, Jonathan J.
Hodgson, Jenny A.
Thomas, Chris D.
Lawson, Callum R.
Wilson, Robert J.
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Issue 3
Keywords Warming
Metapopulation
Insecta
Conservation
adaptive management
Ecology
patch area
Environmental design
Modeling
butterfly ecology
metapopulation dynamics
distribution modelling
Dynamical climatology
Climate change
realised niche
global warming
Dynamics
Arthropoda
Global change
Lepidoptera
Ecological niche
Invertebrata
Adaptation
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PublicationTitle The Journal of applied ecology
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Publisher Blackwell Publishing
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Blackwell
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SSID ssj0009533
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Snippet 1. There is a pressing need to understand how to facilitate species' range shifts under climate change. However, few empirical studies are available to inform...
Summary 1. There is a pressing need to understand how to facilitate species’ range shifts under climate change. However, few empirical studies are available to...
1. There is a pressing need to understand how to facilitate species’ range shifts under climate change. However, few empirical studies are available to inform...
There is a pressing need to understand how to facilitate species' range shifts under climate change. However, few empirical studies are available to inform...
1.€,There is a pressing need to understand how to facilitate species' range shifts under climate change. However, few empirical studies are available to inform...
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StartPage 552
SubjectTerms adaptive management
Animal, plant and microbial ecology
Applied ecology
Biodiversity conservation
Biological and medical sciences
butterflies
Butterflies & moths
butterfly ecology
case studies
climate
Climate change
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Colonization
Connectivity
conservation
Conservation biology
distribution modelling
Earth, ocean, space
Environmental quality
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Extinction
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
General aspects
global warming
Habitat conservation
Habitats
immigration
landscape management
Limiting factors
metapopulation dynamics
Metapopulation ecology
Meteorology
Nonnative species
patch area
Population density
Range management
realised niche
risk
space and time
Special Profile: Adapting conservation to a changing climate
Species extinction
Survival
Survival analysis
United Kingdom
Title Local and landscape management of an expanding range margin under climate change
URI https://www.jstor.org/stable/23259052
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111%2Fj.1365-2664.2011.02098.x
https://www.proquest.com/docview/1019436158
https://www.proquest.com/docview/1501353526
Volume 49
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