Early warning of the Indian Ocean Dipole using climate network analysis

SignificanceThe Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), an air-sea coupled phenomenon over the tropical Indian Ocean, has substantial impacts on the climate, ecosystems, and society. Due to the winter predictability barrier, however, a reliable prediction of the IOD has been limited to 3 or 4 mo in advance. Our...

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Published inProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 119; no. 11; p. e2109089119
Main Authors Lu, Zhenghui, Dong, Wenjie, Lu, Bo, Yuan, Naiming, Ma, Zhuguo, Bogachev, Mikhail I, Kurths, Juergen
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States National Academy of Sciences 15.03.2022
Subjects
Climate
Dipoles
Dynamic models
False alarms
Network analysis
Physical Sciences
Sea surface temperature
Temperature
Indian Ocean
prediction
Indian Ocean Dipole
climate network
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Summary:SignificanceThe Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), an air-sea coupled phenomenon over the tropical Indian Ocean, has substantial impacts on the climate, ecosystems, and society. Due to the winter predictability barrier, however, a reliable prediction of the IOD has been limited to 3 or 4 mo in advance. Our work approaches this problem from a new data-driven perspective: the climate network analysis. Using this network-based method, an efficient early warning signal for the IOD event was revealed in boreal winter. Our approach can correctly predict the IOD events one calendar year in advance (from December of the previous year) with a hit rate of higher than 70%, which strongly outperforms current dynamic models.
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Author contributions: Z.L., W.D., B.L., and N.Y. designed research; Z.L. performed research; Z.L., W.D., B.L., and N.Y. analyzed data; Z.L., W.D., B.L., N.Y., Z.M., M.I.B., and J.K. wrote the paper; and Z.M., M.I.B., and J.K. provided suggestions and revised the manuscript.
1Z.L. and N.Y. contributed equally to this work.
Edited by Michael Mann, Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; received May 16, 2021; accepted December 30, 2021
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.2109089119