Population forecasting: Guest editors' introduction
An introduction to a special journal issue on population forecasting (see related abstracts in SOPODA 16:1). Topics of the articles include: cohort component methods & forecast error bounds; unique features of forecasts; the role of judgment in evaluating forecasts; time-series models, structura...
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| Published in | International journal of forecasting Vol. 8; no. 3; pp. 289 - 299 |
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| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Amsterdam
Elsevier B.V
01.11.1992
Elsevier Elsevier Sequoia S.A |
| Series | International Journal of Forecasting |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0169-2070 1872-8200 |
| DOI | 10.1016/0169-2070(92)90048-E |
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| Abstract | An introduction to a special journal issue on population forecasting (see related abstracts in SOPODA 16:1). Topics of the articles include: cohort component methods & forecast error bounds; unique features of forecasts; the role of judgment in evaluating forecasts; time-series models, structural-equation models, & model schedules; approaches to & comparisons of forecasting; stochastic demographic forecasting; & forecasts of special populations. Directions for future research are suggested. 37 References. J. W. Stanton |
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| AbstractList | An introduction to a special journal issue on population forecasting (see related abstracts in SOPODA 16:1). Topics of the articles include: cohort component methods & forecast error bounds; unique features of forecasts; the role of judgment in evaluating forecasts; time-series models, structural-equation models, & model schedules; approaches to & comparisons of forecasting; stochastic demographic forecasting; & forecasts of special populations. Directions for future research are suggested. 37 References. J. W. Stanton To a certain extent, population forecasters have worked in isolation from other forecasters for many years. One of the reasons is that population forecasters developed their own forecasting method - the cohort component approach - which is ideally suited for dealing with the uniqueness of demographic subject matter but not for most other forecasting tasks. The last decade has seen increased experimentation with time series models, econometric or structural-equation models, and model age-specific schedules for demographic rates. A recent development in population forecasting is the application of stochastic models, which represent a promising approach to systematically assessing the uncertainty of population forecasts. Stochastic models are developed for vital rates, which are then used in stochastic matrices to generate probability distributions for the future population. The population component that has received the least attention in new modeling approaches is the immigrant population. |
| Author | Ahlburg, Dennis A. Land, Kenneth C. |
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| Snippet | To a certain extent, population forecasters have worked in isolation from other forecasters for many years. One of the reasons is that population forecasters... An introduction to a special journal issue on population forecasting (see related abstracts in SOPODA 16:1). Topics of the articles include: cohort component... |
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| SubjectTerms | Demographics Forecasting Forecasting techniques Methodological Problems Methodology (Data Analysis) Population Population Growth Stochastic models |
| Title | Population forecasting: Guest editors' introduction |
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