Modeling cost-effectiveness of risk-based bovine tuberculosis surveillance in Minnesota
In the United States, slaughter surveillance combined with other measures has effectively maintained a very low prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). However, bTB continues to be sporadically detected, causing substantial economic burden to the government and cattle producers. To detect the infec...
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Published in | Preventive veterinary medicine Vol. 159; pp. 1 - 11 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
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Elsevier B.V
01.11.2018
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Abstract | In the United States, slaughter surveillance combined with other measures has effectively maintained a very low prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). However, bTB continues to be sporadically detected, causing substantial economic burden to the government and cattle producers. To detect the infection earlier and reduce sudden economic losses, additional risk-based surveillance of live animals might be more cost-effective than slaughter surveillance alone to detect and prevent bTB infection. The objective of this study was to evaluate alternative risk-based surveillance strategies targeting high-risk herds to complement slaughter surveillance in a region with very low bTB prevalence. We developed an integrated within- and between-herd bTB transmission model with simulated premises-level cattle movements among beef and dairy herds in Minnesota for 10 years. We constructed ten risk-based surveillance strategies for beef herds and dairy herds, and predicted the epidemiological outcomes and costs for each strategy in combination with slaughter surveillance. Our models showed that slaughter surveillance alone resulted in low risk of between-herd transmission with typically small outbreak sizes, and also cost less compared to alternative risk-based surveillance measures. However, risk-based surveillance strategies could reduce the time to detect infection and the time to reach disease freedom by up to 9 months. At a higher initial prevalence, alternative risk-based surveillance could reduce the number of infected herds and shorten the time to disease freedom by almost 3 years (34–35 months). Our findings suggest that risk-based surveillance could detect infection more quickly and allow affected regions to reach disease freedom faster. If the bTB status of the affected regions changes after an outbreak happens, the reduced time to disease freedom could reduce the economic impact on the affected region. |
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AbstractList | In the United States, slaughter surveillance combined with other measures has effectively maintained a very low prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). However, bTB continues to be sporadically detected, causing substantial economic burden to the government and cattle producers. To detect the infection earlier and reduce sudden economic losses, additional risk-based surveillance of live animals might be more cost-effective than slaughter surveillance alone to detect and prevent bTB infection. The objective of this study was to evaluate alternative risk-based surveillance strategies targeting high-risk herds to complement slaughter surveillance in a region with very low bTB prevalence. We developed an integrated within- and between-herd bTB transmission model with simulated premises-level cattle movements among beef and dairy herds in Minnesota for 10 years. We constructed ten risk-based surveillance strategies for beef herds and dairy herds, and predicted the epidemiological outcomes and costs for each strategy in combination with slaughter surveillance. Our models showed that slaughter surveillance alone resulted in low risk of between-herd transmission with typically small outbreak sizes, and also cost less compared to alternative risk-based surveillance measures. However, risk-based surveillance strategies could reduce the time to detect infection and the time to reach disease freedom by up to 9 months. At a higher initial prevalence, alternative risk-based surveillance could reduce the number of infected herds and shorten the time to disease freedom by almost 3 years (34–35 months). Our findings suggest that risk-based surveillance could detect infection more quickly and allow affected regions to reach disease freedom faster. If the bTB status of the affected regions changes after an outbreak happens, the reduced time to disease freedom could reduce the economic impact on the affected region. |
Author | Picasso, Catalina VanderWaal, Kimberly Kao, Szu-Yu Zoe Craft, Meggan E. Enns, Eva A. Alvarez, Julio Wells, Scott J. |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Szu-Yu Zoe surname: Kao fullname: Kao, Szu-Yu Zoe email: kaoxx085@umn.edu organization: Division of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, United States – sequence: 2 givenname: Kimberly surname: VanderWaal fullname: VanderWaal, Kimberly organization: Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, United States – sequence: 3 givenname: Eva A. orcidid: 0000-0003-0693-7358 surname: Enns fullname: Enns, Eva A. organization: Division of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, United States – sequence: 4 givenname: Meggan E. surname: Craft fullname: Craft, Meggan E. organization: Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, United States – sequence: 5 givenname: Julio orcidid: 0000-0002-8999-9417 surname: Alvarez fullname: Alvarez, Julio organization: VISAVET Health Surveillance Center, Universidad Complutense, Madrid, Spain – sequence: 6 givenname: Catalina surname: Picasso fullname: Picasso, Catalina organization: Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, United States – sequence: 7 givenname: Scott J. surname: Wells fullname: Wells, Scott J. organization: Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, United States |
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CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1016_j_epidem_2022_100636 crossref_primary_10_3390_v13112203 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_compag_2022_107483 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_prevetmed_2022_105763 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_prevetmed_2023_106049 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_prevetmed_2020_104902 crossref_primary_10_1590_1809_6891v24e_73611e crossref_primary_10_1098_rsos_192042 crossref_primary_10_3389_fcosc_2022_857678 crossref_primary_10_3389_fvets_2022_961696 crossref_primary_10_3389_fvets_2023_1231711 crossref_primary_10_1098_rsif_2022_0890 crossref_primary_10_1590_1809_6891v24e_73611p crossref_primary_10_1111_tbed_13774 |
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Keywords | Targeted surveillance Cost-effectiveness analysis Mycobacterium bovis Disease spread Cattle movements Bovine tuberculosis |
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SubjectTerms | Animal Husbandry Animals Bovine tuberculosis Cattle Cattle movements Cost-Benefit Analysis Cost-effectiveness analysis Dairying Disease Outbreaks - veterinary Disease spread Epidemiological Monitoring - veterinary Minnesota - epidemiology Models, Economic Models, Theoretical Mycobacterium bovis Population Surveillance - methods Prevalence Risk Assessment Targeted surveillance Tuberculosis, Bovine - epidemiology Tuberculosis, Bovine - microbiology |
Title | Modeling cost-effectiveness of risk-based bovine tuberculosis surveillance in Minnesota |
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