Tropical cyclones and climate change

Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have altered, or will alter, in a changing climate has been subject of considerable debate. An overview of recent research indicates that greenhouse warming will cause stronger storms, on average, but a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones....

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Published in	Nature geoscience Vol. 3; no. 3; pp. 157 - 163
Main Authors	Knutson, Thomas R., McBride, John L., Chan, Johnny, Emanuel, Kerry, Holland, Greg, Landsea, Chris, Held, Isaac, Kossin, James P., Srivastava, A. K., Sugi, Masato
Format	Journal Article
Language	English
Published	London Nature Publishing Group UK 01.03.2010 Nature Publishing Group
Subjects	704/106 704/106/35 Climate change Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Earth System Sciences Geochemistry Geology Geophysics/Geodesy Global warming Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases Precipitation rate review-article Tropical cyclones
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Abstract	Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have altered, or will alter, in a changing climate has been subject of considerable debate. An overview of recent research indicates that greenhouse warming will cause stronger storms, on average, but a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones. Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate — and if so, how — has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies.
AbstractList	Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have altered, or will alter, in a changing climate has been subject of considerable debate. An overview of recent research indicates that greenhouse warming will cause stronger storms, on average, but a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones. Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate — and if so, how — has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies. Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate -- and if so, how -- has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2-11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6-34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies.
Author	Srivastava, A. K. Holland, Greg Kossin, James P. Knutson, Thomas R. Emanuel, Kerry McBride, John L. Held, Isaac Landsea, Chris Sugi, Masato Chan, Johnny
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Thomas R. surname: Knutson fullname: Knutson, Thomas R. email: Tom.Knutson@noaa.gov organization: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton – sequence: 2 givenname: John L. surname: McBride fullname: McBride, John L. organization: Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research – sequence: 3 givenname: Johnny surname: Chan fullname: Chan, Johnny organization: Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon – sequence: 4 givenname: Kerry surname: Emanuel fullname: Emanuel, Kerry organization: Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Room 54-1620 MIT – sequence: 5 givenname: Greg surname: Holland fullname: Holland, Greg organization: National Center for Atmospheric Research – sequence: 6 givenname: Chris surname: Landsea fullname: Landsea, Chris organization: National Hurricane Center/NWS/NOAA – sequence: 7 givenname: Isaac surname: Held fullname: Held, Isaac organization: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton – sequence: 8 givenname: James P. surname: Kossin fullname: Kossin, James P. organization: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA – sequence: 9 givenname: A. K. surname: Srivastava fullname: Srivastava, A. K. organization: India Meteorological Department – sequence: 10 givenname: Masato surname: Sugi fullname: Sugi, Masato organization: Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku
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Snippet	Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have altered, or will alter, in a changing climate has been subject of considerable debate. An overview of... Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate -- and if so, how -- has been the subject of considerable...
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SubjectTerms	704/106 704/106/35 Climate change Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Earth System Sciences Geochemistry Geology Geophysics/Geodesy Global warming Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases Precipitation rate review-article Tropical cyclones
Title	Tropical cyclones and climate change
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