Portfolio managers' and novices' forecasts of risk and return: are there predictable forecast errors?

• Published in: Journal of forecasting Vol. 21; no. 6; pp. 395 - 416
• Main Author: Muradoglu, Gulnur
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Chichester, UK John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 01.09.2002; Wiley Periodicals Inc
• Subjects: Accuracy; Bear markets; Bull markets; Economics; Efficient markets; Experiments; Forecasting; Forecasting techniques; Forecasts; Heuristic; Hypotheses; Investment policy; Investments; investor psychology; Investors; judgement; overreaction; Portfolio management; Price levels; Risk; Stock exchanges; stock price forecasts; Stock prices; Studies; Time series; Trends

This study aims to investigate the individual behaviour that underlies the overreaction hypothesis by conducting a controlled experiment. Two areas that were not captured by previous research on the validity of the overreaction hypothesis are investigated. First, actual portfolio managers are employ...