A Statistical Method for Estimating Activity Uncertainty Parameters to Improve Project Forecasting

• Published in: Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) Vol. 21; no. 10; p. 952
• Main Authors: Vanhoucke, Mario, Batselier, Jordy
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.10.2019; MDPI
• Subjects: Calibration; Critical path; Decision making; Decisions; distribution fitting; Energy; Entropy; Estimates; Estimation; Human bias; lognormal distribution; managerial effort; Parameter estimation; Parameter uncertainty; Partitioning; Project management; Risk assessment; Schedules; Scheduling; Simulation; Statistical analysis; Statistical methods

Just like any physical system, projects have entropy that must be managed by spending energy. The entropy is the project’s tendency to move to a state of disorder (schedule delays, cost overruns), and the energy process is an inherent part of any project management methodology. In order to manage th...