Uncertainty analysis and robust areas of high and low modeled human impact on the global oceans
Increasing anthropogenic pressure on marine ecosystems from fishing, pollution, climate change, and other sources is a big concern in marine conservation. Scientists have thus developed spatial models to map cumulative human impacts on marine ecosystems. However, these models are based on many assum...
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| Published in | Conservation biology Vol. 32; no. 6; pp. 1368 - 1379 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
United States
Wiley Blackwell, Inc
01.12.2018
Blackwell Publishing Ltd |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Increasing anthropogenic pressure on marine ecosystems from fishing, pollution, climate change, and other sources is a big concern in marine conservation. Scientists have thus developed spatial models to map cumulative human impacts on marine ecosystems. However, these models are based on many assumptions and incorporate data that suffer from substantial incompleteness and inaccuracies. Rather than using a single model, we used Monte Carlo simulations to identify which parts of the oceans are subject to the most and least impact from anthropogenic Stressors under 7 simulated sources of uncertainty (factors: e.g., missing Stressor data and assuming linear ecosystem responses to stress). Most maps agreed that high-impact areas were located in the Northeast Atlantic, the eastern Mediterranean, the Caribbean, the continental shelf off northern West Africa, offshore parts of the tropical Atlantic, the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar, parts of East and Southeast Asia, parts of the northwestern Pacific, and many coastal waters. Large low-impact areas were located off Antarctica, in the central Pacific, and in the southern Atlantic. Uncertainty in the broad-scale spatial distribution of modeled human impact was caused by the aggregate effects of several factors, rather than being attributable to a single dominant source. In spite of the identified uncertainty in human-impact maps, they can—at broad spatial scales and in combination with other environmental and socioeconomic information—point to priority areas for research and management. El incremento de la presión antropogénica sobre los ecosistemas marinos a partir de la pesca, la contaminación, el cambio climático, y otras fuentes es causa de una gran preocupación dentro de la conservación marina. Por esto, los científicos han desarrollado modelos espaciales para mapear los impactos humanos acumulativos sobre los ecosistemas marinos. Sin embargo, estos modelos están basados en muchas suposiciones e incorporan datos que sufren de errores y falta de información sustanciales. En lugar de utilizar solamente un modelo, usamos simulaciones Monte Cario para identificar las regiones de los océanos que están sujetas al mayor y al menor impacto por estresantes antropogénicos bajo siete fuentes simuladas de incertidumbre (factores: p. ej., falta de datos sobre el estresante y la suposición de respuestas ambientales lineales ante el estrés). La mayoría de los mapas concordaron en que las áreas de alto impacto estaban localizadas en el noreste del Atlántico, el este del Mediterráneo, el Caribe, la plataforma continental del oeste de África, algunas regiones del litoral del Atlántico tropical, el océano índico al este de Madagascar, algunas partes del este y sureste de Asia, algunas partes del noroeste del Pacífico, y muchas aguas costeras. Las grandes áreas de bajo impacto se ubicaron en las costas de la Antártida, en el centro del Pacífico, y en el sur del Atlántico. La incertidumbre en la distribución espacial a escala general de los impactos humanos fue causada por los efectos agregados de varios factores, en lugar de ser atribuible a un solo origen dominante. A pesar de la incertidumbre identificada en los mapas de impacto humano, estos pueden - a escalas espaciales generalizadas y en combinación con otra información ambiental y socioeconómica - señalar hacia áreas prioritarias para la investigación y el manejo. 越来越多渔业、污染、气候变化和其它来源的人类活动压カ正在成为海洋生态系统保护的一大问题。科 学家为此开发了空间模型来模拟人类对海洋生态系统的累计影响。然而，这些模型建立在许多假说上，还整合了 大量不完整和不准确的数据。相比于单ー模型，我们则使用了蒙特卡罗模拟来确定在七个模拟的不确定性因素 (如缺失压力因素的数据、假设生态系统对压カ的响应是线性的) 下，海洋受到人类活动压カ影响最大和最小的 地区。大多数模拟结果都显示，受到影响较大的是大西洋东北部、地中海东部、加勒比海、西非北部大陆架、 热带大西洋近海地区、马达加斯加以东的印度洋、东亚和东南亚部分地区、太平洋西北部的部分地区，以及许 多沿海水域。而受到影响较小的大片区域则位于南极洲外、太平洋中部和大西洋南部。模拟人类影响的大尺 度空间分布分析中的不确定性来自多个因素的综合效应，而不能归因于某个单ー的主要因素。虽然人类影响效 应确实存在不确定性，但它们可以在较大空间尺度上, 結合其它环境和社会经济学信息，指出研究和管理的优先 区域。 |
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| AbstractList | Increasing anthropogenic pressure on marine ecosystems from fishing, pollution, climate change, and other sources is a big concern in marine conservation. Scientists have thus developed spatial models to map cumulative human impacts on marine ecosystems. However, these models are based on many assumptions and incorporate data that suffer from substantial incompleteness and inaccuracies. Rather than using a single model, we used Monte Carlo simulations to identify which parts of the oceans are subject to the most and least impact from anthropogenic stressors under 7 simulated sources of uncertainty (factors: e.g., missing stressor data and assuming linear ecosystem responses to stress). Most maps agreed that high‐impact areas were located in the Northeast Atlantic, the eastern Mediterranean, the Caribbean, the continental shelf off northern West Africa, offshore parts of the tropical Atlantic, the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar, parts of East and Southeast Asia, parts of the northwestern Pacific, and many coastal waters. Large low‐impact areas were located off Antarctica, in the central Pacific, and in the southern Atlantic. Uncertainty in the broad‐scale spatial distribution of modeled human impact was caused by the aggregate effects of several factors, rather than being attributable to a single dominant source. In spite of the identified uncertainty in human‐impact maps, they can—at broad spatial scales and in combination with other environmental and socioeconomic information—point to priority areas for research and management. Increasing anthropogenic pressure on marine ecosystems from fishing, pollution, climate change, and other sources is a big concern in marine conservation. Scientists have thus developed spatial models to map cumulative human impacts on marine ecosystems. However, these models are based on many assumptions and incorporate data that suffer from substantial incompleteness and inaccuracies. Rather than using a single model, we used Monte Carlo simulations to identify which parts of the oceans are subject to the most and least impact from anthropogenic stressors under 7 simulated sources of uncertainty (factors: e.g., missing stressor data and assuming linear ecosystem responses to stress). Most maps agreed that high-impact areas were located in the Northeast Atlantic, the eastern Mediterranean, the Caribbean, the continental shelf off northern West Africa, offshore parts of the tropical Atlantic, the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar, parts of East and Southeast Asia, parts of the northwestern Pacific, and many coastal waters. Large low-impact areas were located off Antarctica, in the central Pacific, and in the southern Atlantic. Uncertainty in the broad-scale spatial distribution of modeled human impact was caused by the aggregate effects of several factors, rather than being attributable to a single dominant source. In spite of the identified uncertainty in human-impact maps, they can-at broad spatial scales and in combination with other environmental and socioeconomic information-point to priority areas for research and management.Increasing anthropogenic pressure on marine ecosystems from fishing, pollution, climate change, and other sources is a big concern in marine conservation. Scientists have thus developed spatial models to map cumulative human impacts on marine ecosystems. However, these models are based on many assumptions and incorporate data that suffer from substantial incompleteness and inaccuracies. Rather than using a single model, we used Monte Carlo simulations to identify which parts of the oceans are subject to the most and least impact from anthropogenic stressors under 7 simulated sources of uncertainty (factors: e.g., missing stressor data and assuming linear ecosystem responses to stress). Most maps agreed that high-impact areas were located in the Northeast Atlantic, the eastern Mediterranean, the Caribbean, the continental shelf off northern West Africa, offshore parts of the tropical Atlantic, the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar, parts of East and Southeast Asia, parts of the northwestern Pacific, and many coastal waters. Large low-impact areas were located off Antarctica, in the central Pacific, and in the southern Atlantic. Uncertainty in the broad-scale spatial distribution of modeled human impact was caused by the aggregate effects of several factors, rather than being attributable to a single dominant source. In spite of the identified uncertainty in human-impact maps, they can-at broad spatial scales and in combination with other environmental and socioeconomic information-point to priority areas for research and management. Increasing anthropogenic pressure on marine ecosystems from fishing, pollution, climate change, and other sources is a big concern in marine conservation. Scientists have thus developed spatial models to map cumulative human impacts on marine ecosystems. However, these models are based on many assumptions and incorporate data that suffer from substantial incompleteness and inaccuracies. Rather than using a single model, we used Monte Carlo simulations to identify which parts of the oceans are subject to the most and least impact from anthropogenic Stressors under 7 simulated sources of uncertainty (factors: e.g., missing Stressor data and assuming linear ecosystem responses to stress). Most maps agreed that high-impact areas were located in the Northeast Atlantic, the eastern Mediterranean, the Caribbean, the continental shelf off northern West Africa, offshore parts of the tropical Atlantic, the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar, parts of East and Southeast Asia, parts of the northwestern Pacific, and many coastal waters. Large low-impact areas were located off Antarctica, in the central Pacific, and in the southern Atlantic. Uncertainty in the broad-scale spatial distribution of modeled human impact was caused by the aggregate effects of several factors, rather than being attributable to a single dominant source. In spite of the identified uncertainty in human-impact maps, they can—at broad spatial scales and in combination with other environmental and socioeconomic information—point to priority areas for research and management. El incremento de la presión antropogénica sobre los ecosistemas marinos a partir de la pesca, la contaminación, el cambio climático, y otras fuentes es causa de una gran preocupación dentro de la conservación marina. Por esto, los científicos han desarrollado modelos espaciales para mapear los impactos humanos acumulativos sobre los ecosistemas marinos. Sin embargo, estos modelos están basados en muchas suposiciones e incorporan datos que sufren de errores y falta de información sustanciales. En lugar de utilizar solamente un modelo, usamos simulaciones Monte Cario para identificar las regiones de los océanos que están sujetas al mayor y al menor impacto por estresantes antropogénicos bajo siete fuentes simuladas de incertidumbre (factores: p. ej., falta de datos sobre el estresante y la suposición de respuestas ambientales lineales ante el estrés). La mayoría de los mapas concordaron en que las áreas de alto impacto estaban localizadas en el noreste del Atlántico, el este del Mediterráneo, el Caribe, la plataforma continental del oeste de África, algunas regiones del litoral del Atlántico tropical, el océano índico al este de Madagascar, algunas partes del este y sureste de Asia, algunas partes del noroeste del Pacífico, y muchas aguas costeras. Las grandes áreas de bajo impacto se ubicaron en las costas de la Antártida, en el centro del Pacífico, y en el sur del Atlántico. La incertidumbre en la distribución espacial a escala general de los impactos humanos fue causada por los efectos agregados de varios factores, en lugar de ser atribuible a un solo origen dominante. A pesar de la incertidumbre identificada en los mapas de impacto humano, estos pueden - a escalas espaciales generalizadas y en combinación con otra información ambiental y socioeconómica - señalar hacia áreas prioritarias para la investigación y el manejo. 越来越多渔业、污染、气候变化和其它来源的人类活动压カ正在成为海洋生态系统保护的一大问题。科 学家为此开发了空间模型来模拟人类对海洋生态系统的累计影响。然而，这些模型建立在许多假说上，还整合了 大量不完整和不准确的数据。相比于单ー模型，我们则使用了蒙特卡罗模拟来确定在七个模拟的不确定性因素 (如缺失压力因素的数据、假设生态系统对压カ的响应是线性的) 下，海洋受到人类活动压カ影响最大和最小的 地区。大多数模拟结果都显示，受到影响较大的是大西洋东北部、地中海东部、加勒比海、西非北部大陆架、 热带大西洋近海地区、马达加斯加以东的印度洋、东亚和东南亚部分地区、太平洋西北部的部分地区，以及许 多沿海水域。而受到影响较小的大片区域则位于南极洲外、太平洋中部和大西洋南部。模拟人类影响的大尺 度空间分布分析中的不确定性来自多个因素的综合效应，而不能归因于某个单ー的主要因素。虽然人类影响效 应确实存在不确定性，但它们可以在较大空间尺度上, 結合其它环境和社会经济学信息，指出研究和管理的优先 区域。 Increasing anthropogenic pressure on marine ecosystems from fishing, pollution, climate change, and other sources is a big concern in marine conservation. Scientists have thus developed spatial models to map cumulative human impacts on marine ecosystems. However, these models are based on many assumptions and incorporate data that suffer from substantial incompleteness and inaccuracies. Rather than using a single model, we used Monte Carlo simulations to identify which parts of the oceans are subject to the most and least impact from anthropogenic stressors under 7 simulated sources of uncertainty (factors: e.g., missing stressor data and assuming linear ecosystem responses to stress). Most maps agreed that high‐impact areas were located in the Northeast Atlantic, the eastern Mediterranean, the Caribbean, the continental shelf off northern West Africa, offshore parts of the tropical Atlantic, the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar, parts of East and Southeast Asia, parts of the northwestern Pacific, and many coastal waters. Large low‐impact areas were located off Antarctica, in the central Pacific, and in the southern Atlantic. Uncertainty in the broad‐scale spatial distribution of modeled human impact was caused by the aggregate effects of several factors, rather than being attributable to a single dominant source. In spite of the identified uncertainty in human‐impact maps, they can—at broad spatial scales and in combination with other environmental and socioeconomic information—point to priority areas for research and management. 越来越多渔业、污染、气候变化和其它来源的人类活动压力正在成为海洋生态系统保护的一大问题。科学家为此开发了空间模型来模拟人类对海洋生态系统的累计影响。然而, 这些模型建立在许多假说上, 还整合了大量不完整和不准确的数据。相比于单一模型, 我们则使用了蒙特卡罗模拟来确定在七个模拟的不确定性因素 (如缺失压力因素的数据、假设生态系统对压力的响应是线性的) 下, 海洋受到人类活动压力影响最大和最小的地区。大多数模拟结果都显示, 受到影响较大的是大西洋东北部、地中海东部、加勒比海、西非北部大陆架、热带大西洋近海地区、马达加斯加以东的印度洋、东亚和东南亚部分地区、太平洋西北部的部分地区, 以及许多沿海水域。而受到影响较小的大片区域则位于南极洲外、 太平洋中部和大西洋南部。模拟人类影响的大尺度空间分布分析中的不确定性来自多个因素的综合效应, 而不能归因于某个单一的主要因素。虽然人类影响效应确实存在不确定性, 但它们可以在较大空间尺度上, 结合其它环境和社会经济学信息, 指出研究和管理的优先区域。 【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】 Article impact statement : Using human‐impact maps for conservation planning requires understanding uncertainty and knowing which results on the maps are robust. Increasing anthropogenic pressure on marine ecosystems from fishing, pollution, climate change, and other sources is a big concern in marine conservation. Scientists have thus developed spatial models to map cumulative human impacts on marine ecosystems. However, these models are based on many assumptions and incorporate data that suffer from substantial incompleteness and inaccuracies. Rather than using a single model, we used Monte Carlo simulations to identify which parts of the oceans are subject to the most and least impact from anthropogenic stressors under 7 simulated sources of uncertainty (factors: e.g., missing stressor data and assuming linear ecosystem responses to stress). Most maps agreed that high‐impact areas were located in the Northeast Atlantic, the eastern Mediterranean, the Caribbean, the continental shelf off northern West Africa, offshore parts of the tropical Atlantic, the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar, parts of East and Southeast Asia, parts of the northwestern Pacific, and many coastal waters. Large low‐impact areas were located off Antarctica, in the central Pacific, and in the southern Atlantic. Uncertainty in the broad‐scale spatial distribution of modeled human impact was caused by the aggregate effects of several factors, rather than being attributable to a single dominant source. In spite of the identified uncertainty in human‐impact maps, they can—at broad spatial scales and in combination with other environmental and socioeconomic information—point to priority areas for research and management. Análisis de Incertidumbre y Áreas Robustas del Impacto Humano Alto y Bajo Modelado para los Océanos Mundiales Resumen El incremento de la presión antropogénica sobre los ecosistemas marinos a partir de la pesca, la contaminación, el cambio climático, y otras fuentes es causa de una gran preocupación dentro de la conservación marina. Por esto, los científicos han desarrollado modelos espaciales para mapear los impactos humanos acumulativos sobre los ecosistemas marinos. Sin embargo, estos modelos están basados en muchas suposiciones e incorporan datos que sufren de errores y falta de información sustanciales. En lugar de utilizar solamente un modelo, usamos simulaciones Monte Carlo para identificar las regiones de los océanos que están sujetas al mayor y al menor impacto por estresantes antropogénicos bajo siete fuentes simuladas de incertidumbre (factores: p. ej., falta de datos sobre el estresante y la suposición de respuestas ambientales lineales ante el estrés). La mayoría de los mapas concordaron en que las áreas de alto impacto estaban localizadas en el noreste del Atlántico, el este del Mediterráneo, el Caribe, la plataforma continental del oeste de África, algunas regiones del litoral del Atlántico tropical, el océano Índico al este de Madagascar, algunas partes del este y sureste de Asia, algunas partes del noroeste del Pacífico, y muchas aguas costeras. Las grandes áreas de bajo impacto se ubicaron en las costas de la Antártida, en el centro del Pacífico, y en el sur del Atlántico. La incertidumbre en la distribución espacial a escala general de los impactos humanos fue causada por los efectos agregados de varios factores, en lugar de ser atribuible a un solo origen dominante. A pesar de la incertidumbre identificada en los mapas de impacto humano, estos pueden – a escalas espaciales generalizadas y en combinación con otra información ambiental y socioeconómica – señalar hacia áreas prioritarias para la investigación y el manejo. 摘要 越来越多渔业、污染、气候变化和其它来源的人类活动压力正在成为海洋生态系统保护的一大问题。科学家为此开发了空间模型来模拟人类对海洋生态系统的累计影响。然而, 这些模型建立在许多假说上, 还整合了大量不完整和不准确的数据。相比于单一模型, 我们则使用了蒙特卡罗模拟来确定在七个模拟的不确定性因素 (如缺失压力因素的数据、假设生态系统对压力的响应是线性的) 下, 海洋受到人类活动压力影响最大和最小的地区。大多数模拟结果都显示, 受到影响较大的是大西洋东北部、地中海东部、加勒比海、西非北部大陆架、热带大西洋近海地区、马达加斯加以东的印度洋、东亚和东南亚部分地区、太平洋西北部的部分地区, 以及许多沿海水域。而受到影响较小的大片区域则位于南极洲外、 太平洋中部和大西洋南部。模拟人类影响的大尺度空间分布分析中的不确定性来自多个因素的综合效应, 而不能归因于某个单一的主要因素。虽然人类影响效应确实存在不确定性, 但它们可以在较大空间尺度上, 结合其它环境和社会经济学信息, 指出研究和管理的优先区域。【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】 Article impact statement: Using human‐impact maps for conservation planning requires understanding uncertainty and knowing which results on the maps are robust. |
| Author | Halpern, Benjamin S. Stock, Andy Micheli, Fiorenza Crowder, Larry B. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Andy surname: Stock fullname: Stock, Andy – sequence: 2 givenname: Larry B. surname: Crowder fullname: Crowder, Larry B. – sequence: 3 givenname: Benjamin S. surname: Halpern fullname: Halpern, Benjamin S. – sequence: 4 givenname: Fiorenza surname: Micheli fullname: Micheli, Fiorenza |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29797608$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | 2018 Society for Conservation Biology 2018 Society for Conservation Biology. 2018, Society for Conservation Biology |
| Copyright_xml | – notice: 2018 Society for Conservation Biology – notice: 2018 Society for Conservation Biology. – notice: 2018, Society for Conservation Biology |
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| DOI | 10.1111/cobi.13141 |
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| Keywords | marino mapping 多重压力因素 不确定性 绘制地图 sensitivity analysis análisis de sensibilidad multiple stressors mapeo incertidumbre uncertainty marine efectos acumulativos 敏感度分析 累积效应 estresantes múltiples cumulative effects 海洋 |
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| Notes | Article impact statement Current address: Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory, Marine Biology, 61 Rt 9W, Palisades, NY 10964, U.S.A. Using human‐impact maps for conservation planning requires understanding uncertainty and knowing, which results on the maps are robust. ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 content type line 23 |
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| SubjectTerms | Antarctica anthropogenic activities Anthropogenic factors anthropogenic stressors análisis de sensibilidad Caribbean Climate change coastal water Coastal waters Computer simulation continental shelf Continental shelves cumulative effects Ecosystems efectos acumulativos Environment models estresantes múltiples Fishing Human impact Human influences incertidumbre Indian Ocean Madagascar mapeo mapping marine Marine conservation Marine ecosystems Marine fish Marine pollution marino Monte Carlo method Monte Carlo simulation multiple stressors Oceans Offshore pollution Pollution sources sensitivity analysis South East Asia Spatial distribution Statistical methods Tropical climate Uncertainty Uncertainty analysis Western Africa 不确定性 多重压力因素 敏感度分析 海洋 累积效应 绘制地图 |
| Title | Uncertainty analysis and robust areas of high and low modeled human impact on the global oceans |
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