Development of a method to identify change in the pattern of extreme streamflow events in future climate: Application on the Bhadra reservoir inflow in India

Bhadra basin (1968km2), located in peninsular India, is considered for demonstration. A general framework to assess the impact of climate change on the pattern of daily extreme streamflow events is proposed. Whereas, the impact is confirmed in the recent literature for most of the hydrologic variabl...

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Published inJournal of hydrology. Regional studies Vol. 9; no. C; pp. 236 - 246
Main Authors Pichuka, Subbarao, Prasad R, Rajendra, Maity, Rajib, Kunstmann, Harald
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Elsevier B.V 01.02.2017
Elsevier
Subjects
Bhadra reservoir
Climate change
Downscaling
Extreme events
GCM
HEC-HMS
SDSM
Streamflow
GCM
Climate change
HEC-HMS
Extreme events
Downscaling
Bhadra reservoir
Streamflow
SDSM
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Abstract Bhadra basin (1968km2), located in peninsular India, is considered for demonstration. A general framework to assess the impact of climate change on the pattern of daily extreme streamflow events is proposed. Whereas, the impact is confirmed in the recent literature for most of the hydrologic variables at monthly/seasonal time scale, assessment and quantification at finer time scale, e.g. daily, is challenging. Complexity increases for the derived hydrologic variables, such as soil moisture and streamflow as compared to primary hydrologic variables, such as precipitation. The proposed general framework is demonstrated with the daily inflow to the Bhadra reservoir. Different statistical limits of extremes are defined and change in daily extreme pattern (number and magnitude) in the future (2006–2035) is assessed with respect to the baseline period (1971–2000). Demonstration of the proposed methodology with the inflow to Bhadra reservoir reveals that the daily extreme events are expected to increase in number with the increase in the threshold of the extreme. For a particular threshold, the average magnitude of the extreme events in the future is found to be higher as compared to the baseline period. However, for monthly totals the case is not the same − it remains almost similar. The methodology, being general in nature, can be applied to other locations in order to assess the future change in streamflow and other derived variables.
AbstractList Bhadra basin (1968km2), located in peninsular India, is considered for demonstration. A general framework to assess the impact of climate change on the pattern of daily extreme streamflow events is proposed. Whereas, the impact is confirmed in the recent literature for most of the hydrologic variables at monthly/seasonal time scale, assessment and quantification at finer time scale, e.g. daily, is challenging. Complexity increases for the derived hydrologic variables, such as soil moisture and streamflow as compared to primary hydrologic variables, such as precipitation. The proposed general framework is demonstrated with the daily inflow to the Bhadra reservoir. Different statistical limits of extremes are defined and change in daily extreme pattern (number and magnitude) in the future (2006–2035) is assessed with respect to the baseline period (1971–2000). Demonstration of the proposed methodology with the inflow to Bhadra reservoir reveals that the daily extreme events are expected to increase in number with the increase in the threshold of the extreme. For a particular threshold, the average magnitude of the extreme events in the future is found to be higher as compared to the baseline period. However, for monthly totals the case is not the same − it remains almost similar. The methodology, being general in nature, can be applied to other locations in order to assess the future change in streamflow and other derived variables.
Study region: Bhadra basin (1968 km2), located in peninsular India, is considered for demonstration. Study focus: A general framework to assess the impact of climate change on the pattern of daily extreme streamflow events is proposed. Whereas, the impact is confirmed in the recent literature for most of the hydrologic variables at monthly/seasonal time scale, assessment and quantification at finer time scale, e.g. daily, is challenging. Complexity increases for the derived hydrologic variables, such as soil moisture and streamflow as compared to primary hydrologic variables, such as precipitation. The proposed general framework is demonstrated with the daily inflow to the Bhadra reservoir. Different statistical limits of extremes are defined and change in daily extreme pattern (number and magnitude) in the future (2006–2035) is assessed with respect to the baseline period (1971–2000). New hydrological insights for the region: Demonstration of the proposed methodology with the inflow to Bhadra reservoir reveals that the daily extreme events are expected to increase in number with the increase in the threshold of the extreme. For a particular threshold, the average magnitude of the extreme events in the future is found to be higher as compared to the baseline period. However, for monthly totals the case is not the same − it remains almost similar. The methodology, being general in nature, can be applied to other locations in order to assess the future change in streamflow and other derived variables.
Author Prasad R, Rajendra
Kunstmann, Harald
Maity, Rajib
Pichuka, Subbarao
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Issue C
Keywords GCM
Climate change
HEC-HMS
Extreme events
Downscaling
Bhadra reservoir
Streamflow
SDSM
Language English
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Snippet Bhadra basin (1968km2), located in peninsular India, is considered for demonstration. A general framework to assess the impact of climate change on the pattern...
Study region: Bhadra basin (1968 km2), located in peninsular India, is considered for demonstration. Study focus: A general framework to assess the impact of...
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elsevier
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StartPage 236
SubjectTerms Bhadra reservoir
Climate change
Downscaling
Extreme events
GCM
HEC-HMS
SDSM
Streamflow
Title Development of a method to identify change in the pattern of extreme streamflow events in future climate: Application on the Bhadra reservoir inflow in India
URI https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2016.12.084
https://doaj.org/article/445b8e66ddee46619fd39f145f1baaef
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