The Spatiotemporal Evolution of Rainfall Extremes in a Changing Climate: A CONUS‐Wide Assessment Based on Multifractal Scaling Arguments

Given the rapidly changing climate, accurate spatiotemporal information on the evolution of extreme rainfall events is required for flood risk assessment and the design of resilient infrastructure. Consequently, various research efforts have focused on investigating the appropriateness of various pa...

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Published inEarth's future Vol. 10; no. 3
Main Authors Emmanouil, Stergios, Langousis, Andreas, Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I., Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Bognor Regis John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.03.2022
Wiley
Subjects
Approximation
Climate change
Climate models
Climatic extremes
Climatology
Environmental risk
Evolution
extreme rainfall
Extreme weather
Flood risk
Hydrology
Infrastructure
intensity‐duration‐frequency curves
Modelling
multifractals
Precipitation
Precipitation estimation
Probability
Rain
Rainfall
Rainfall climatology
rainfall intensification
Risk assessment
Trends
Uncertainty
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Abstract Given the rapidly changing climate, accurate spatiotemporal information on the evolution of extreme rainfall events is required for flood risk assessment and the design of resilient infrastructure. Consequently, various research efforts have focused on investigating the appropriateness of various parametric and non‐parametric approaches in modeling the observed changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall over time. Yet, the assumption of stationarity, or the change of model parameters when accounting for nonstationary rainfall, may magnify estimation uncertainty of rain rates associated with low exceedance probabilities. Moreover, the use of climate model results may yield inconclusive outcomes, given the existence of epistemic uncertainties in the frequency of extreme events developing on smaller spatial scales or over complex terrain. Herein, we employ a parametric approach based on multifractal scaling arguments, along with high‐resolution (4‐km) hourly precipitation estimates covering a 40‐year period over CONUS, to derive Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency curves and investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme rainfall over a wide range of characteristic temporal scales and exceedance probability levels. Considering the robustness of the multifractal models even when fitted to short rainfall records, we uniquely apply the framework to sequential 10‐year segments of data, where the rainfall process can be reasonably assumed stationary. The obtained results reveal that existing infrastructure may be severely impacted by the intensification of precipitation extremes due to climate change, with the observed trends being significantly influenced by the topography and rainfall climatology of each region, while depending on the averaging durations and return periods of interest. Key Points A robust multifractal scheme is applied to sequential data segments to assess the evolution of Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency curves The spatiotemporal evolution of extreme rainfall for various averaging durations and return periods reveals infrastructure vulnerabilities The observed extreme rainfall trends are significantly influenced by local topography and rainfall climatology
AbstractList Given the rapidly changing climate, accurate spatiotemporal information on the evolution of extreme rainfall events is required for flood risk assessment and the design of resilient infrastructure. Consequently, various research efforts have focused on investigating the appropriateness of various parametric and non‐parametric approaches in modeling the observed changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall over time. Yet, the assumption of stationarity, or the change of model parameters when accounting for nonstationary rainfall, may magnify estimation uncertainty of rain rates associated with low exceedance probabilities. Moreover, the use of climate model results may yield inconclusive outcomes, given the existence of epistemic uncertainties in the frequency of extreme events developing on smaller spatial scales or over complex terrain. Herein, we employ a parametric approach based on multifractal scaling arguments, along with high‐resolution (4‐km) hourly precipitation estimates covering a 40‐year period over CONUS, to derive Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency curves and investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme rainfall over a wide range of characteristic temporal scales and exceedance probability levels. Considering the robustness of the multifractal models even when fitted to short rainfall records, we uniquely apply the framework to sequential 10‐year segments of data, where the rainfall process can be reasonably assumed stationary. The obtained results reveal that existing infrastructure may be severely impacted by the intensification of precipitation extremes due to climate change, with the observed trends being significantly influenced by the topography and rainfall climatology of each region, while depending on the averaging durations and return periods of interest.
Abstract Given the rapidly changing climate, accurate spatiotemporal information on the evolution of extreme rainfall events is required for flood risk assessment and the design of resilient infrastructure. Consequently, various research efforts have focused on investigating the appropriateness of various parametric and non‐parametric approaches in modeling the observed changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall over time. Yet, the assumption of stationarity, or the change of model parameters when accounting for nonstationary rainfall, may magnify estimation uncertainty of rain rates associated with low exceedance probabilities. Moreover, the use of climate model results may yield inconclusive outcomes, given the existence of epistemic uncertainties in the frequency of extreme events developing on smaller spatial scales or over complex terrain. Herein, we employ a parametric approach based on multifractal scaling arguments, along with high‐resolution (4‐km) hourly precipitation estimates covering a 40‐year period over CONUS, to derive Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency curves and investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme rainfall over a wide range of characteristic temporal scales and exceedance probability levels. Considering the robustness of the multifractal models even when fitted to short rainfall records, we uniquely apply the framework to sequential 10‐year segments of data, where the rainfall process can be reasonably assumed stationary. The obtained results reveal that existing infrastructure may be severely impacted by the intensification of precipitation extremes due to climate change, with the observed trends being significantly influenced by the topography and rainfall climatology of each region, while depending on the averaging durations and return periods of interest.
Given the rapidly changing climate, accurate spatiotemporal information on the evolution of extreme rainfall events is required for flood risk assessment and the design of resilient infrastructure. Consequently, various research efforts have focused on investigating the appropriateness of various parametric and non‐parametric approaches in modeling the observed changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall over time. Yet, the assumption of stationarity, or the change of model parameters when accounting for nonstationary rainfall, may magnify estimation uncertainty of rain rates associated with low exceedance probabilities. Moreover, the use of climate model results may yield inconclusive outcomes, given the existence of epistemic uncertainties in the frequency of extreme events developing on smaller spatial scales or over complex terrain. Herein, we employ a parametric approach based on multifractal scaling arguments, along with high‐resolution (4‐km) hourly precipitation estimates covering a 40‐year period over CONUS, to derive Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency curves and investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme rainfall over a wide range of characteristic temporal scales and exceedance probability levels. Considering the robustness of the multifractal models even when fitted to short rainfall records, we uniquely apply the framework to sequential 10‐year segments of data, where the rainfall process can be reasonably assumed stationary. The obtained results reveal that existing infrastructure may be severely impacted by the intensification of precipitation extremes due to climate change, with the observed trends being significantly influenced by the topography and rainfall climatology of each region, while depending on the averaging durations and return periods of interest. A robust multifractal scheme is applied to sequential data segments to assess the evolution of Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency curves The spatiotemporal evolution of extreme rainfall for various averaging durations and return periods reveals infrastructure vulnerabilities The observed extreme rainfall trends are significantly influenced by local topography and rainfall climatology
Given the rapidly changing climate, accurate spatiotemporal information on the evolution of extreme rainfall events is required for flood risk assessment and the design of resilient infrastructure. Consequently, various research efforts have focused on investigating the appropriateness of various parametric and non‐parametric approaches in modeling the observed changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall over time. Yet, the assumption of stationarity, or the change of model parameters when accounting for nonstationary rainfall, may magnify estimation uncertainty of rain rates associated with low exceedance probabilities. Moreover, the use of climate model results may yield inconclusive outcomes, given the existence of epistemic uncertainties in the frequency of extreme events developing on smaller spatial scales or over complex terrain. Herein, we employ a parametric approach based on multifractal scaling arguments, along with high‐resolution (4‐km) hourly precipitation estimates covering a 40‐year period over CONUS, to derive Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency curves and investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme rainfall over a wide range of characteristic temporal scales and exceedance probability levels. Considering the robustness of the multifractal models even when fitted to short rainfall records, we uniquely apply the framework to sequential 10‐year segments of data, where the rainfall process can be reasonably assumed stationary. The obtained results reveal that existing infrastructure may be severely impacted by the intensification of precipitation extremes due to climate change, with the observed trends being significantly influenced by the topography and rainfall climatology of each region, while depending on the averaging durations and return periods of interest. Key Points A robust multifractal scheme is applied to sequential data segments to assess the evolution of Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency curves The spatiotemporal evolution of extreme rainfall for various averaging durations and return periods reveals infrastructure vulnerabilities The observed extreme rainfall trends are significantly influenced by local topography and rainfall climatology
Author Langousis, Andreas
Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.
Emmanouil, Stergios
Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.
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  orcidid: 0000-0002-8772-3409
  surname: Emmanouil
  fullname: Emmanouil, Stergios
  organization: University of Connecticut
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  givenname: Andreas
  orcidid: 0000-0002-0643-2520
  surname: Langousis
  fullname: Langousis, Andreas
  organization: University of Patras
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  givenname: Efthymios I.
  orcidid: 0000-0002-5206-1249
  surname: Nikolopoulos
  fullname: Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.
  organization: Florida Institute of Technology
– sequence: 4
  givenname: Emmanouil N.
  orcidid: 0000-0002-1622-0302
  surname: Anagnostou
  fullname: Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.
  email: manos@uconn.edu
  organization: University of Connecticut
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Snippet Given the rapidly changing climate, accurate spatiotemporal information on the evolution of extreme rainfall events is required for flood risk assessment and...
Abstract Given the rapidly changing climate, accurate spatiotemporal information on the evolution of extreme rainfall events is required for flood risk...
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SubjectTerms Approximation
Climate change
Climate models
Climatic extremes
Climatology
Environmental risk
Evolution
extreme rainfall
Extreme weather
Flood risk
Hydrology
Infrastructure
intensity‐duration‐frequency curves
Modelling
multifractals
Precipitation
Precipitation estimation
Probability
Rain
Rainfall
Rainfall climatology
rainfall intensification
Risk assessment
Trends
Uncertainty
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Title The Spatiotemporal Evolution of Rainfall Extremes in a Changing Climate: A CONUS‐Wide Assessment Based on Multifractal Scaling Arguments
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Volume 10
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