Combining forecasts in short term load forecasting: Empirical analysis and identification of robust forecaster

• Published in: Sadhana (Bangalore) Vol. 41; no. 10; pp. 1123 - 1133
• Main Authors: Bichpuriya, Yogesh K, Soman, S A, Subramanyam, A
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New Delhi Springer India 01.10.2016; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Accuracy; Empirical analysis; Engineering; Kurtosis; Outliers (statistics); Robustness; Short term; Standard deviation; robustness; short term load forecasting; composite score; Combination
• ISSN: 0256-2499; 0973-7677
• DOI: 10.1007/s12046-016-0542-3

We present an empirical analysis to show that combination of short term load forecasts leads to better accuracy. We also discuss other aspects of combination, i.e., distribution of weights, effect of variation in the historical window and distribution of forecast errors. The distribution of forecast errors is analyzed in order to get a robust forecast. We define a robust forecaster as one which has consistency in forecast accuracy, lesser shocks (outliers) and lower standard deviation in the distribution of forecast errors. We propose a composite ranking (CRank) scheme based on a composite score which considers three performance measures—standard deviation, kurtosis of distribution of forecast errors and accuracy of forecasts. The CRank helps in identification of a robust forecasts given a choice of individual and combined forecaster. The empirical analysis has been done with the real life data sets of two distribution companies in India.