Counterfactual Triviality: A Lewis-Impossibility Argument for Counterfactuals

• Published in: Philosophy and phenomenological research Vol. 85; no. 3; pp. 648 - 670
• Main Author: WILLIAMS, J. ROBERT G.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.11.2012; Wiley
• Subjects: Conditional probabilities; Contrafactuals; Counterfactuals; Indicative conditionals; Logic of Language; Logical suppositions; Normativity; Probabilities; Probability theory; Ramsey test; Randomness; Syntactical consequents

I formulate a counterfactual version of the notorious 'Ramsey Test'. Whereas the Ramsey Test for indicative conditionals links credence in indicatives to conditional credences, the counterfactual version links credence in counterfactuals to expected conditional chance. I outline two forms:...