Evaluating probabilistic software development effort estimates: Maximizing informativeness subject to calibration

• Published in: Information and software technology Vol. 115; pp. 93 - 96
• Main Author: Jørgensen, Magne
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.11.2019
• Subjects: Effort prediction intervals; Estimated effort distributions; Estimation error measurement; Probabilistic effort estimates; Effort prediction intervals; Probabilistic effort estimates; Estimation error measurement; Estimated effort distributions

Probabilistic effort estimates inform about the uncertainty and may give useful input to plans, budgets and investment analyses. This paper introduces, motivates and illustrates two principles on how to evaluate the accuracy and other performance criteria of probabilistic effort estimates in softwar...