Dynamical Downscaling for Climate Projection with High-Resolution MRI AGCM-RCM
High-resolution downscaling is vital to project climate extremes and their future changes by resolving fine topography reasonably well, which is a key to represent local climatology and impacts of weather extremes. A direct dynamical downscaling with a regional climate model (RCM) embedded within an...
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| Published in | Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Vol. 94A; pp. 1 - 16 |
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| Main Authors | , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
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Meteorological Society of Japan
01.01.2016
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| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0026-1165 2186-9057 |
| DOI | 10.2151/jmsj.2015-022 |
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| Abstract | High-resolution downscaling is vital to project climate extremes and their future changes by resolving fine topography reasonably well, which is a key to represent local climatology and impacts of weather extremes. A direct dynamical downscaling with a regional climate model (RCM) embedded within an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM) is commonly used but is subject to systematic biases in their present-day simulations of AOGCM, which may cause unexpected effects on future projections and lead to difficult interpretation of climate change. In a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM)-RCM system, the present-day climate in AGCM is forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice distribution. Then, the future climate is calculated with the “future” boundary conditions (SST and sea-ice), which are created by adding their future changes projected by AOGCM to the observed present-day values, besides the future radiative forcing. This system is one of methods to minimize the effects of such biases. A Meteorological Research Institute AGCM with 20-km grids is successfully applied to project future changes in weather extremes such as tropical cyclones and rain systems that cause heavy rainfall and strong winds. Regional downscaling with 5-km mesh RCM is then performed over certain area to investigate local extreme rainfall events and their future changes. In this paper, we review various downscaling methods and try to rationalize a use of high-resolution AGCM-RCM system. |
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| AbstractList | High-resolution downscaling is vital to project climate extremes and their future changes by resolving fine topography reasonably well, which is a key to represent local climatology and impacts of weather extremes. A direct dynamical downscaling with a regional climate model (RCM) embedded within an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM) is commonly used but is subject to systematic biases in their present-day simulations of AOGCM, which may cause unexpected effects on future projections and lead to difficult interpretation of climate change. In a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM)-RCM system, the present-day climate in AGCM is forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice distribution. Then, the future climate is calculated with the “future” boundary conditions (SST and sea-ice), which are created by adding their future changes projected by AOGCM to the observed present-day values, besides the future radiative forcing. This system is one of methods to minimize the effects of such biases. A Meteorological Research Institute AGCM with 20-km grids is successfully applied to project future changes in weather extremes such as tropical cyclones and rain systems that cause heavy rainfall and strong winds. Regional downscaling with 5-km mesh RCM is then performed over certain area to investigate local extreme rainfall events and their future changes. In this paper, we review various downscaling methods and try to rationalize a use of high-resolution AGCM-RCM system. |
| Author | OSE, Tomoaki KITOH, Akio TAKAYABU, Izuru |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: TAKAYABU, Izuru organization: Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan – sequence: 1 fullname: KITOH, Akio organization: University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan – sequence: 1 fullname: OSE, Tomoaki organization: Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan |
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| Title | Dynamical Downscaling for Climate Projection with High-Resolution MRI AGCM-RCM |
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