A Time-Dependent SIR Model for COVID-19 With Undetectable Infected Persons

• Published in: IEEE transactions on network science and engineering Vol. 7; no. 4; pp. 3279 - 3294
• Main Authors: Chen, Yi-Cheng, Lu, Ping-En, Chang, Cheng-Shang, Liu, Tzu-Hsuan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States IEEE 01.10.2020; The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
• Subjects: Coronavirus; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Disease control; Disease transmission; Diseases; Epidemics; Government; herd immunity; Impact analysis; independent cascade; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical model; Matrix methods; Numerical models; Outbreaks; Phase transitions; Predictive models; SARS-CoV-2; Social distancing; Sociology; Statistics; superspreader; Time dependence; time-dependent SIR model; undetectable infection; Viral diseases; China; COVID-19; herd immunity; undetectable infection; SARS-CoV-2; independent cascade; time-dependent SIR model; Coronavirus; social distancing; superspreader

In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses for COVID-19. To predict the trend of COVID-19, we propose a time-dependent SIR model that tracks the transmission and recovering rate at time t. Using the data provided by China authority, we show our one-day prediction errors are almost...