Long-run expectations in a learning-to-forecast experiment

• Published in: Applied economics letters Vol. 25; no. 10; pp. 681 - 687
• Main Authors: Colasante, Annarita, Alfarano, Simone, Camacho, Eva, Gallegati, Mauro
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Routledge 07.06.2018; Taylor & Francis LLC
• Subjects: Assets; coordination; Economic analysis; Economic forecasting; Economic theory; Economics; Learning; learning-to-forecast experiments; Long-run expectations; Prices; Rational expectations

We conduct a Learning to Forecast Experiment using a novel setting in which we elicit subjects' short- and long-run expectations on the future price of an asset. We find that: (i) the rational expectations equilibrium is not a meaningful description for the whole time spectrum of subjects'...