Long-run expectations in a learning-to-forecast experiment
We conduct a Learning to Forecast Experiment using a novel setting in which we elicit subjects' short- and long-run expectations on the future price of an asset. We find that: (i) the rational expectations equilibrium is not a meaningful description for the whole time spectrum of subjects'...
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| Published in | Applied economics letters Vol. 25; no. 10; pp. 681 - 687 |
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| Main Authors | , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
London
Routledge
07.06.2018
Taylor & Francis LLC |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | We conduct a Learning to Forecast Experiment using a novel setting in which we elicit subjects' short- and long-run expectations on the future price of an asset. We find that: (i) the rational expectations equilibrium is not a meaningful description for the whole time spectrum of subjects' expectations; (ii) they are, instead, better described by an anchor-and-adjustment learning scheme; (iii) subjects exhibit a higher degree of heterogeneity in their long-run expectations vis-à-vis short-run expectations. |
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| AbstractList | We conduct a Learning to Forecast Experiment using a novel setting in which we elicit subjects' short- and long-run expectations on the future price of an asset. We find that: (i) the rational expectations equilibrium is not a meaningful description for the whole time spectrum of subjects' expectations; (ii) they are, instead, better described by an anchor-and-adjustment learning scheme; (iii) subjects exhibit a higher degree of heterogeneity in their long-run expectations vis-à-vis short-run expectations. |
| Author | Colasante, Annarita Gallegati, Mauro Alfarano, Simone Camacho, Eva |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1257/mic.4.4.35 10.1108/S0193-230620140000017002 10.2307/2951494 10.1093/rfs/hhi003 10.1016/j.jedc.2012.03.006 10.1016/j.jedc.2008.09.009 10.1017/CBO9781139094276 10.1257/0002828053828446 10.1257/aer.97.5.1901 |
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| SubjectTerms | Assets coordination Economic analysis Economic forecasting Economic theory Economics Learning learning-to-forecast experiments Long-run expectations Prices Rational expectations |
| Title | Long-run expectations in a learning-to-forecast experiment |
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