The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights
From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the me...
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| Published in | Journal of clinical medicine Vol. 9; no. 2; p. 419 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
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MDPI AG
04.02.2020
MDPI |
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| Abstract | From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed by the mean serial interval (estimated at 7.5 days), the ascertainment rate of infection was estimated at 9.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.0, 20.0). This indicates that the incidence of infection in Wuhan can be estimated at 20,767 infected individuals, including those with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections. The infection fatality risk (IFR)—the actual risk of death among all infected individuals—is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%, which may be comparable to Asian influenza pandemic of 1957–1958. |
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| AbstractList | From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed by the mean serial interval (estimated at 7.5 days), the ascertainment rate of infection was estimated at 9.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.0, 20.0). This indicates that the incidence of infection in Wuhan can be estimated at 20,767 infected individuals, including those with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections. The infection fatality risk (IFR)—the actual risk of death among all infected individuals—is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%, which may be comparable to Asian influenza pandemic of 1957–1958. From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed by the mean serial interval (estimated at 7.5 days), the ascertainment rate of infection was estimated at 9.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.0, 20.0). This indicates that the incidence of infection in Wuhan can be estimated at 20,767 infected individuals, including those with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections. The infection fatality risk (IFR)-the actual risk of death among all infected individuals-is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%, which may be comparable to Asian influenza pandemic of 1957-1958.From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed by the mean serial interval (estimated at 7.5 days), the ascertainment rate of infection was estimated at 9.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.0, 20.0). This indicates that the incidence of infection in Wuhan can be estimated at 20,767 infected individuals, including those with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections. The infection fatality risk (IFR)-the actual risk of death among all infected individuals-is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%, which may be comparable to Asian influenza pandemic of 1957-1958. |
| Author | Kobayashi, Tetsuro Yuan, Baoyin Kinoshita, Ryo Yang, Yichi Akhmetzhanov, Andrei Linton, Natalie Miyama, Takeshi Suzuki, Ayako Jung, Sung-mok Nishiura, Hiroshi Hayashi, Katsuma |
| AuthorAffiliation | 2 Core Research for Evolutionary Science and Technology, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan 1 Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan; tootsieroll2910@gmail.com (T.K.); lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp (Y.Y.); katsuma5miffy@gmail.com (K.H.); ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp (R.K.); nlinton@gmail.com (N.M.L.); seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp (S.-m.J.); baoyinyuan@outlook.com (B.Y.); akmskorokoro@gmail.com (A.S.) 3 Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan; takeshi.j.miyama@gmail.com |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 3 Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan; takeshi.j.miyama@gmail.com – name: 1 Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan; tootsieroll2910@gmail.com (T.K.); lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp (Y.Y.); katsuma5miffy@gmail.com (K.H.); ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp (R.K.); nlinton@gmail.com (N.M.L.); seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp (S.-m.J.); baoyinyuan@outlook.com (B.Y.); akmskorokoro@gmail.com (A.S.) – name: 2 Core Research for Evolutionary Science and Technology, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Hiroshi orcidid: 0000-0003-0941-8537 surname: Nishiura fullname: Nishiura, Hiroshi – sequence: 2 givenname: Tetsuro surname: Kobayashi fullname: Kobayashi, Tetsuro – sequence: 3 givenname: Yichi surname: Yang fullname: Yang, Yichi – sequence: 4 givenname: Katsuma surname: Hayashi fullname: Hayashi, Katsuma – sequence: 5 givenname: Takeshi surname: Miyama fullname: Miyama, Takeshi – sequence: 6 givenname: Ryo orcidid: 0000-0002-0116-4598 surname: Kinoshita fullname: Kinoshita, Ryo – sequence: 7 givenname: Natalie orcidid: 0000-0002-5464-0076 surname: Linton fullname: Linton, Natalie – sequence: 8 givenname: Sung-mok orcidid: 0000-0002-0787-4515 surname: Jung fullname: Jung, Sung-mok – sequence: 9 givenname: Baoyin surname: Yuan fullname: Yuan, Baoyin – sequence: 10 givenname: Ayako surname: Suzuki fullname: Suzuki, Ayako – sequence: 11 givenname: Andrei orcidid: 0000-0003-3269-7351 surname: Akhmetzhanov fullname: Akhmetzhanov, Andrei |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32033064$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| Cites_doi | 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 10.1093/aje/kws314 10.1101/2020.01.29.20019547 10.3390/jcm9020330 10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549 |
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| Title | The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights |
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