Robust planning of blending activities at refineries

• Published in: The Journal of the Operational Research Society Vol. 64; no. 6; pp. 848 - 863
• Main Authors: Bengtsson, J, Bredström, D, Flisberg, P, Rönnqvist, M
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Taylor & Francis 01.06.2013; Palgrave Macmillan; Palgrave Macmillan UK; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Business and Management; Capital costs; Case studies; Crackers; Crude oil; Decision making; decision support system; Determinism; Finished goods; General Paper; General Papers; Integrated approach; Inventory; Inventory management; Logistics; Management; Modeling; Naphtha; oil; Operations research; Operations Research/Decision Theory; Optimization; Oracles; Petroleum refineries; planning; production; Production planning; risk; Robust optimization; Scheduling; Studies; Vacuum distillation; planning; risk; oil; optimization; production; decision support system
• ISSN: 0160-5682; 1476-9360
• DOI: 10.1057/jors.2012.86

Refinery operation planning is a complex task since refinery processes and inventories are tightly interconnected. We study refinery planning when ships are loaded with a blend of components and where arrival times of ships are uncertain. Any delay in ship arrival may result in overfull component tanks which results in less efficient blending alternatives, reduced process operations or even shut downs. We propose a planning approach where we use robust optimization as a decision tool. By using robust optimization uncertainty in arrival times is explicitly dealt with and the resulting plan and schedule will always be feasible. The approach includes a flexible way to describe and model uncertainties. To compare the robust approach with a traditional deterministic approach, we use a simulation process. Computational results from a case study and simulations show that the proposed methodology is substantially better than a deterministic approach.