Improving forecasts using equally weighted predictors

• Published in: Journal of business research Vol. 68; no. 8; pp. 1792 - 1799
• Main Author: Graefe, Andreas
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Elsevier Inc 01.08.2015; Elsevier Sequoia S.A
• Subjects: Differential weights; Econometric models; Economic forecasts; Elections; Equal weights; Forecasting techniques; Index method; Mathematical models; Measurement errors; Political behaviour; Predictions; Presidential election forecasting; Regression; Regression analysis; Studies; U.S.A; Variables; United States > US; Equal weights; Index method; Regression; Econometric models; Presidential election forecasting; Differential weights

The usual procedure for developing linear models to predict any kind of target variable is to identify a subset of most important predictors and to estimate weights that provide the best possible solution for a given sample. The resulting “optimally” weighted linear composite is then used when predi...