Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters

• Published in: Organizational behavior and human decision processes Vol. 160; pp. 19 - 35
• Main Authors: Atanasov, Pavel, Witkowski, Jens, Ungar, Lyle, Mellers, Barbara, Tetlock, Philip
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Inc 01.09.2020
• Subjects: Belief revision; Belief updating; Forecasting; Prediction; Belief updating; Forecasting; Prediction; Belief revision

•Accurate forecasters tend to update their beliefs in small, frequent steps.•Small-increment updating is a valid signal of early accuracy.•Propensity to update rather than confirm beliefs predicts improvement over time. Laboratory research has shown that both underreaction and overreaction to new in...