A cross-entropy method and probabilistic sensitivity analysis framework for calibrating microscopic traffic models

• Published in: Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies Vol. 63; pp. 147 - 169
• Main Authors: Zhong, R.X., Fu, K.Y., Sumalee, A., Ngoduy, D., Lam, W.H.K.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier India Pvt Ltd 01.02.2016
• Subjects: Calibration; Car following; Car-following model; Cross-entropy method; Kullback–Leibler distance; Mathematical models; Model calibration; Probabilistic methods; Probabilistic sensitivity analysis; Probability theory; Relative entropy; Sensitivity analysis; Traffic engineering; Traffic flow; Probabilistic sensitivity analysis; Model calibration; Relative entropy; Kullback–Leibler distance; Car-following model; Cross-entropy method

•A framework based on the CEM and PSA is proposed to calibrate microscopic traffic models and to identify important parameters simultaneously under noisy data.•Obtaining plausible solutions sufficiently close to the global optimum.•The PSA can handle nonlinear and/or non-Gaussian distribution with h...