Hydrometeorological Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts in Complex Terrain. Part I: Meteorological Evaluation

• Published in: Weather and forecasting Vol. 23; no. 4; pp. 533 - 556
• Main Authors: McCollor, Doug, Stull, Roland
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Boston, MA American Meteorological Society 01.08.2008
• Subjects: Archives & records; Cyclones; Data assimilation; Data collection; Earth, ocean, space; Ensemble forecasting; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Fjords; Fluid dynamics; Glaciers; Hydroelectric power; Hydrometeorology; Meteorology; Mountain glaciers; Mountains; Precipitation; Precipitation forecasting; Rainy season; Research methodology; Seasons; Terrain; Variables; Water in the atmosphere (humidity, clouds, evaporation, precipitation); Watersheds; Weather analysis and prediction; Weather forecasting; Wet season; Canada; Western Canada; British Columbia; British Columbia Canada; Canada, British Columbia; Multimodel; Ensemble simulation; ground truth; Weather forecast; Precipitation intensity; atmospheric precipitation; topography; North America; False alarm rate; Hydrometeorology; Short range forecast; Complex terrain; Forecast skill; spatial resolution; Numerical forecast

This paper addresses the question of whether it is better to include lower-resolution members of a nested suite of numerical precipitation forecasts to increase ensemble size, or to utilize high-resolution members only to maximize forecast details in regions of complex terrain. A short-range ensembl...