Probabilistic reasoning in the two-envelope problem

• Published in: Thinking & reasoning Vol. 21; no. 3; pp. 295 - 316
• Main Author: Burns, Bruce D.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Hove Routledge 03.07.2015; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Mathematical modeling; Probabilistic reasoning; Two-envelope problem

In the two-envelope problem, a reasoner is offered two envelopes, one containing exactly twice the money in the other. After observing the amount in one envelope, it can be traded for the unseen contents of the other. It appears that it should not matter whether the envelope is traded, but recent ma...