The Relative Contribution of Direct and Environmental Transmission Routes in Stochastic Avian Flu Epidemic Recurrence: An Approximate Analysis

We present an analysis of an avian flu model that yields insight into the roles of different transmission routes in the recurrence of avian influenza epidemics. Recent modelling work suggests that the outbreak periodicity of the disease is mainly determined by the environmental transmission rate. Th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inBulletin of mathematical biology Vol. 81; no. 11; pp. 4484 - 4517
Main Authors Mata, May Anne, Greenwood, Priscilla, Tyson, Rebecca
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published New York Springer US 01.11.2019
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Avian flu
Cell Biology
Disease transmission
Epidemics
Life Sciences
Mathematical and Computational Biology
Mathematics
Mathematics and Statistics
Outbreaks
Pandemics
Periodicity
Special Issue: Mathematical Epidemiology
Stochasticity
Avian influenza
Stochastic SIR
Disease transmission
Sustained oscillations
Recurrent epidemics
Host pathogen model
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Summary:We present an analysis of an avian flu model that yields insight into the roles of different transmission routes in the recurrence of avian influenza epidemics. Recent modelling work suggests that the outbreak periodicity of the disease is mainly determined by the environmental transmission rate. This conclusion, however, is based on a modelling study that only considers a weak between-host transmission rate. We develop an approximate model for stochastic avian flu epidemics, which allows us to determine the relative contribution of environmental and direct transmission routes to the periodicity and intensity of outbreaks over the full range of plausible parameter values for transmission. Our approximate model reveals that epidemic recurrence is chiefly governed by the product of a rotation and a slowly varying standard Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process (i.e. mean-reverting process). The intrinsic frequency of the damped deterministic version of the system predicts the dominant period of outbreaks. We show that the typical periodicity of major avian flu outbreaks can be explained in terms of either or both types of transmission and that the typical amplitude of epidemics is highly sensitive to the direct transmission rate.
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ISSN:0092-8240
1522-9602
DOI:10.1007/s11538-018-0414-6