Predicting the risk and trigger thresholds for propagation of meteorological droughts to agricultural droughts in China based on Copula-Bayesian model

• Published in: Agricultural water management Vol. 313; p. 109468
• Main Authors: Yang, Cuiping, Liu, Changhong, Xing, Xuguang, Ma, Xiaoyi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 31.05.2025; Elsevier
• Subjects: agricultural management; China; climate; drought; Drought forecast; hydrology; prediction; Propagation probability; Propagation threshold; risk; temperature; Threshold dynamic; water management; watersheds; Yangtze River; China; Yangtze River; Propagation probability; Drought forecast; Propagation threshold; Threshold dynamic

Meteorological droughts are propagated through atmospheric and hydrological cycles, ultimately triggering agricultural droughts. Accurate prediction of future meteorological to agricultural drought propagation is essential for developing early warning systems and managing agricultural water resource...